Updated

England Championship · Matchday 10

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton

· Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton· Referee Tim Robinson

Full time1 – 3

Alin prediction was Wolverhampton Wanderers to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Wolverhampton WanderersDrawBolton

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWolverhampton WanderersDrawBolton
Model53%25%22%
Market68%20%13%
Published64%21%15%
Edge-4%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.16.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Wolverhampton Wanderers, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 1.40Now 1.38 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Wolverhampton Wanderers1.401.38-0.02
Draw4.704.80+0.10
Bolton6.837.45+0.62

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Bolton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.87Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.16Bolton
Total expected goals
3.03
Attack rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Bolton)
1.05 / 1.09
Defence rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Bolton)
0.88 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 4.5% 3.2% 1.2% 0.5% 1 8.0% 11.5% 6.1% 2.3% 0.9% 2 8.5% 9.8% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8% 3 5.3% 6.1% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 3.8% 4.4% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Columns: Bolton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Wolverhampton Wanderers64%1.56
Draw21%4.81
Bolton15%6.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.71
Under 2.542%2.40
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.69
No41%2.44
Double chance1X (Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw)85%1.18
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Bolton)36%2.79
Handicap -1Wolverhampton Wanderers win by 2+31%3.23
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Bolton recent form

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2W 1D 3L
Bolton 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wolverhampton Wanderers at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.

Bolton away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Wolverhampton Wanderers at home only, Bolton away only.

Injuries & availability

Wolverhampton Wanderers absences

  • B. Traore injury
  • B. Traore injury
  • R. Gomes foot injury
  • R. Jimenez knee injury
  • Y. Mosquera ankle injury

Bolton absences

  • C. Forino-Joseph groin injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Wolverhampton Wanderers lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 José Sá
  2. 3 Hugo Bueno
  3. 37 L. Krejčí
  4. 34 N. Djiga
  5. 2 K. Trippier
  6. 8 J. James
  7. 7 André
  8. 36 M. Mane
  9. 28 Fer López
  10. 27 J. Bellegarde
  11. 10 A. Armstrong

Bench: M. Munetsi, João Virgínia, S. Neave, R. Saïd, T. Doyle, T. Chirewa, Toti Gomes, G. Konan, J. Tchatchoua

Bolton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 G. Bazunu
  2. 14 A. Famewo
  3. 5 L. Brunt
  4. 18 E. Toal
  5. 22 Gaizka Larrazabal
  6. 21 E. Erhahon
  7. 8 J. Sheehan
  8. 11 T. Gale
  9. 17 A. Ito
  10. 16 S. Iling-Junior
  11. 9 T. Bair

Bench: J. Bonham, X. Simons, B. Davies, S. Dalby, Ruben Rodrigues, M. Conway, J. Nelson, R. Hardie

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Wolverhampton Wanderers 3 · draws 4 · Bolton 3.

Wolverhampton WanderersDrawsBolton
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2018-04-21Bolton0-4Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2017-11-25Wolverhampton Wanderers5-1BoltonChampionship
2016-02-02Wolverhampton Wanderers2-2BoltonChampionship
2015-09-12Bolton2-1Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2015-01-31Bolton2-2Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2014-09-20Wolverhampton Wanderers1-0BoltonChampionship
2013-04-06Bolton2-0Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2012-10-23Wolverhampton Wanderers2-2BoltonChampionship
2012-03-31Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3BoltonPremier League
2011-12-31Bolton1-1Wolverhampton WanderersPremier League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match