Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton: model vs market
| Source | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Draw | Bolton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Bolton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Bolton)
- 1.14 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Bolton)
- 0.89 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Columns: Bolton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Bolton | 22% | 4.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.60 |
| No | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Bolton) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win by 2+ | 33% | 2.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Bolton recent form
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3W 1D 2L
Bolton
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wolverhampton Wanderers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
Bolton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wolverhampton Wanderers at home only, Bolton away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Cardiff v Watford — match page 2026-10-13
- Burnley vs Charlton — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Bristol City v Blackburn — match page 2026-10-13
- Millwall vs Swansea — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Wrexham vs West Brom 2026-10-13
- Birmingham vs Preston 2026-10-13
- Stoke City v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-10-13