Cardiff vs Watford: model vs market
| Source | Cardiff | Draw | Watford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 21% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 66% | 21% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 0.91.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cardiff and Watford expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (Cardiff / Watford)
- 1.18 / 0.66
- Defence rating (Cardiff / Watford)
- 1.14 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cardiff vs Watford score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cardiff goals. Columns: Watford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cardiff vs Watford goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cardiff vs Watford
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 66% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Watford | 14% | 7.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cardiff or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Watford) | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff win by 2+ | 43% | 2.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cardiff and Watford recent form
Cardiff
1W 2D 3L
Watford
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cardiff at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Watford away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cardiff at home only, Watford away only.
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