Updated

England Championship · Matchday 10

Cardiff vs Watford

· Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff· Referee John Busby

Full time5 – 1

Alin prediction was Cardiff to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CardiffDrawWatford

Cardiff vs Watford: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCardiffDrawWatford
Model70%19%11%
Market57%22%20%
Published60%21%18%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 0.88.
  • The market prices Cardiff below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cardiff vs Watford odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cardiff, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 1.83Now 1.65 -0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cardiff1.831.65-0.19
Draw3.904.25+0.35
Watford3.704.65+0.95

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cardiff and Watford expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.36Cardiff
0.88Watford
Total expected goals
3.24
Attack rating (Cardiff / Watford)
1.14 / 0.62
Defence rating (Cardiff / Watford)
1.18 / 1.45

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cardiff vs Watford score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 2.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1 8.4% 8.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 2 10.9% 9.6% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 3 8.6% 7.6% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 8.8% 7.8% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3%

Rows: Cardiff goals. Columns: Watford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cardiff vs Watford goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cardiff vs Watford

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cardiff60%1.65
Draw21%4.67
Watford18%5.52
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.59
Under 2.537%2.70
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.86
No46%2.17
Double chance1X (Cardiff or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Watford)40%2.53
Handicap -1Cardiff win by 2+48%2.10
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cardiff and Watford recent form

Cardiff 1W 1D 4L
Watford 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cardiff at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Watford away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cardiff at home only, Watford away only.

Injuries & availability

Cardiff absences

  • C. Chambers knee injury
  • D. Lawlor inactive
  • K. Bielik suspended
  • R. Colwill health problems
  • Y. Salech inactive

Watford absences

  • E. Bove knee injury
  • J. Ngakia thigh injury
  • K. Baah knock
  • M. Antonio inactive
  • T. Akomeah lacking match fitness

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Cardiff lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Trott
  2. 3 J. Bagan
  3. 4 G. Osho
  4. 48 D. Lawlor
  5. 38 P. Ng
  6. 45 Cian Ashford
  7. 18 A. Robertson
  8. 16 C. Willock
  9. 27 J. Colwill
  10. 11 O. Tanner
  11. 8 J. Moylan

Bench: W. Fish, D. Turnbull, C. Scanlon, H. Tyrer, I. Davies, P. Moreno, R. Kpakio, C. Robinson

Watford lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 F. Ravaglia
  2. 33 J. Zemura
  3. 4 K. Keben
  4. 6 M. Pollock
  5. 23 O. Traoré
  6. 5 H. Kyprianou
  7. 39 E. Kayembe
  8. 45 S. Mavididi
  9. 22 M. Payero
  10. 7 O. Maamma
  11. 10 M. Boadu

Bench: S. Coulibaly, L. Kjerrumgaard, K. Diatta, M. Bola, Iker Bravo, M. Doumbia, Amin Nabizada, D. Bachmann, Branimir Mlačić

Cardiff vs Watford head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Cardiff 4 · draws 2 · Watford 4.

CardiffDrawsWatford
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-01-14Cardiff1-1WatfordChampionship
2024-12-29Watford1-2CardiffChampionship
2024-02-03Watford0-1CardiffChampionship
2023-10-07Cardiff1-1WatfordChampionship
2023-04-19Watford1-3CardiffChampionship
2022-11-02Cardiff1-2WatfordChampionship
2021-03-13Cardiff1-2WatfordChampionship
2020-12-05Watford0-1CardiffChampionship
2019-02-22Cardiff1-5WatfordPremier League
2018-12-15Watford3-2CardiffPremier League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match