Birmingham vs Preston: model vs market
| Source | Birmingham | Draw | Preston |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Published | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Birmingham vs Preston odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Birmingham, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.65 | 1.47 | -0.18 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.50 | +0.65 |
| Preston | 4.86 | 6.45 | +1.59 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Birmingham and Preston expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Birmingham / Preston)
- 1.07 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Birmingham / Preston)
- 1.06 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Birmingham vs Preston score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Birmingham goals. Columns: Preston goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Birmingham vs Preston goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Birmingham vs Preston
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.65 | |
| Preston | 15% | 6.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Birmingham or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Preston) | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win by 2+ | 37% | 2.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Birmingham and Preston recent form
Birmingham
2W 3D 1L
Preston
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Birmingham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Preston away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Birmingham at home only, Preston away only.
Injuries & availability
Birmingham absences
-
M. Leonard
achilles tendon injury
- Paik Seung-Ho health problems
Preston absences
-
A. McCann
hamstring injury
-
B. Potts
ankle injury
-
C. Lang
inactive
- C. Wiley inactive
- H. Clarke inactive
- J. Kenny inactive
- S. Mills inactive
-
T. Carroll
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Birmingham lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Beadle
- 20 A. Cochrane
- 4 C. Klarer
- 5 P. Neumann
- 26 B. Osayi-Samuel
- 14 J. Solis
- 24 T. Iwata
- 17 L. Millar
- 28 J. Stansfield
- 16 P. Roberts
- 9 A. Priske
Bench: E. Laird, Carlos Vicente, D. Gray, M. Bird, T. Gardner-Hickman, R. Allsop, D. Fry, L. Vázquez, M. Ducksch
Preston lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 D. Iversen
- 16 A. Hughes
- 24 O. Offiah
- 14 J. Storey
- 20 L. Gibbs
- 15 J. Thompson
- 27 L. Leroy
- 11 T. Small
- 7 A. Devine
- 17 S. Mills
- 10 C. Lang
Bench: Pol Valentín, A. Vukčević, L. Lindsay, J. Erabi, L. Gibson, L. Nicholls, A. Moran, G. Gryba, D. Burgzorg
Birmingham vs Preston head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Birmingham 5 · draws 2 · Preston 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Birmingham | 2-1 | Preston | England Championship |
| 2025-10-21 | Preston | 0-1 | Birmingham | England Championship |
| 2024-04-01 | Birmingham | 1-0 | Preston | Championship |
| 2023-09-19 | Preston | 2-1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2023-01-21 | Birmingham | 1-2 | Preston | Championship |
| 2022-09-03 | Preston | 0-1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2022-01-15 | Preston | 1-1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2021-09-25 | Birmingham | 0-0 | Preston | Championship |
| 2021-01-20 | Birmingham | 0-1 | Preston | Championship |
| 2020-10-31 | Preston | 1-2 | Birmingham | Championship |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton 2026-10-13
- Cardiff v Watford — match page 2026-10-13
- Burnley vs Charlton — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Bristol City v Blackburn — match page 2026-10-13
- Millwall vs Swansea — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Wrexham vs West Brom 2026-10-13
- Stoke City v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-10-13
- Norwich vs Southampton — team news & stats 2026-10-14
Before and after this match
- Birmingham, next: Birmingham v QPR analysis
- Preston, next: Wrexham vs Preston prediction