Birmingham vs Preston: model vs market
| Source | Birmingham | Draw | Preston |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Birmingham and Preston expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (Birmingham / Preston)
- 1.11 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Birmingham / Preston)
- 1.15 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Birmingham vs Preston score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Birmingham goals. Columns: Preston goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Birmingham vs Preston goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Birmingham vs Preston
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Preston | 19% | 5.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Birmingham or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Preston) | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win by 2+ | 38% | 2.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Birmingham and Preston recent form
Birmingham
2W 3D 1L
Preston
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Birmingham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Preston away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Birmingham at home only, Preston away only.
Birmingham vs Preston head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Birmingham 2 · draws 0 · Preston 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Birmingham | 2-1 | Preston | England Championship |
| 2025-10-21 | Preston | 0-1 | Birmingham | England Championship |
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