Bristol City vs Blackburn: model vs market
| Source | Bristol City | Draw | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 27% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bristol City and Blackburn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Bristol City / Blackburn)
- 0.97 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Bristol City / Blackburn)
- 1.04 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bristol City vs Blackburn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bristol City goals. Columns: Blackburn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bristol City vs Blackburn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bristol City vs Blackburn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol City | 40% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Blackburn | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bristol City or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Blackburn) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol City win by 2+ | 20% | 4.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bristol City and Blackburn recent form
Bristol City
4W 0D 2L
Blackburn
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bristol City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Blackburn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bristol City at home only, Blackburn away only.
Bristol City vs Blackburn head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Bristol City 1 · draws 0 · Blackburn 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Blackburn | 1-2 | Bristol City | England Championship |
| 2025-11-04 | Bristol City | 0-1 | Blackburn | England Championship |
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