Updated

England Championship · Matchday 10

Bristol City vs Blackburn

· Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol· Referee David Webb

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Bristol City to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bristol CityDrawBlackburn

Bristol City vs Blackburn: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBristol CityDrawBlackburn
Model38%27%35%
Market46%28%27%
Published44%28%29%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bristol City vs Blackburn odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bristol City, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 1.95Now 2.06 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bristol City1.952.06+0.11
Draw3.503.40-0.10
Blackburn3.613.52-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bristol City and Blackburn expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.46Bristol City
1.39Blackburn
Total expected goals
2.85
Attack rating (Bristol City / Blackburn)
0.95 / 1.12
Defence rating (Bristol City / Blackburn)
1.03 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bristol City vs Blackburn score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 6.9% 5.6% 2.6% 1.2% 1 7.2% 12.9% 8.2% 3.8% 1.8% 2 6.1% 8.6% 6.0% 2.8% 1.3% 3 3.0% 4.2% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6% 4+ 1.5% 2.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Bristol City goals. Columns: Blackburn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bristol City vs Blackburn goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bristol City vs Blackburn

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bristol City44%2.29
Draw28%3.62
Blackburn29%3.48
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.84
Under 2.546%2.19
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.70
No41%2.43
Double chance1X (Bristol City or draw)71%1.40
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Blackburn)56%1.77
Handicap -1Bristol City win by 2+19%5.38
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bristol City and Blackburn recent form

Bristol City 3W 1D 2L
Blackburn 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bristol City at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Blackburn away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bristol City at home only, Blackburn away only.

Injuries & availability

Bristol City absences

  • J. Williams inactive
  • L. McNally inactive
  • L. Tolaj knock
  • N. Eile illness
  • R. Dickie knee injury

Blackburn absences

  • A. Forshaw hip injury
  • L. Miller achilles tendon injury
  • M. Jorgensen hamstring injury
  • M. Litherland muscle injury
  • S. Wharton achilles tendon injury
  • Y. Ohashi hamstring injury
  • Y. Ribeiro hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bristol City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Tickle
  2. 3 C. Pring
  3. 5 R. Atkinson
  4. 2 L. Eissat
  5. 19 G. Tanner
  6. 12 J. Knight
  7. 27 G. Yah
  8. 20 S. Greenwood
  9. 10 S. Twine
  10. 17 J. Wallace
  11. 23 D. Ballard

Bench: A. Randell, B. De Keersmaecker, Y. Hirakawa, S. Bell, T. Horvat, L. McNally, Rio Cardines, B. Collins, E. Adebayo

Blackburn lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 22 B. Tóth
  2. 15 S. McLoughlin
  3. 17 H. Carter
  4. 6 Tom Atcheson
  5. 3 H. Pickering
  6. 31 Kristi Montgomery
  7. 8 Sam Morsy
  8. 2 R. Alebiosu
  9. 21 O. Afolayan
  10. 25 R. Morishita
  11. 10 T. Cantwell

Bench: A. Pears, A. Kargbo, A. Guðjohnsen, J. Fevrier, D. De Neve, M. Baradji, Gady Beyuku, M. Jørgensen, J. Garrett

Bristol City vs Blackburn head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bristol City 5 · draws 2 · Blackburn 3.

Bristol CityDrawsBlackburn
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-24Blackburn1-2Bristol CityEngland Championship
2025-11-04Bristol City0-1BlackburnEngland Championship
2025-01-25Bristol City2-1BlackburnChampionship
2024-09-14Blackburn3-0Bristol CityChampionship
2024-04-10Bristol City5-0BlackburnChampionship
2023-12-12Blackburn2-1Bristol CityChampionship
2023-01-21Bristol City1-1BlackburnChampionship
2022-09-03Blackburn2-3Bristol CityChampionship
2022-03-12Blackburn0-1Bristol CityChampionship
2021-11-20Bristol City1-1BlackburnChampionship

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match