Norwich vs Southampton preview
In the Championship fixture between Norwich and Southampton, the 1X2 probabilities show Southampton at 55% to win, compared to Norwich's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of Norwich 2.01 and Southampton 2.80.
Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Norwich losing 4 of their last 6 matches, while Southampton has won 3 of their last 6. The model predicts high-scoring potential, with Over 2.5 goals at 86% and both teams to score at 82%. However, if Norwich can improve their performance at home, they may challenge Southampton's stronger form.
Norwich vs Southampton: model vs market
| Source | Norwich | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 19% | 55% |
| Market | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Published | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Edge | -15% | -7% | +22% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.80 vs 2.01.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Southampton below the model: +21.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.95, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Norwich and Southampton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.81
- Attack rating (Norwich / Southampton)
- 1.38 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Norwich / Southampton)
- 1.59 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Norwich vs Southampton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Norwich goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Norwich vs Southampton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 82%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Norwich vs Southampton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norwich | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Southampton | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86% | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 14% | 7.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 82% | 1.22 |
| No | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Norwich or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Southampton) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win by 2+ | 36% | 2.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Norwich and Southampton recent form
Norwich
2W 0D 4L
Southampton
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Norwich at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Southampton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Norwich at home only, Southampton away only.
Norwich vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Norwich 1 · draws 0 · Southampton 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Southampton | 1-0 | Norwich | England Championship |
| 2025-12-13 | Norwich | 2-1 | Southampton | England Championship |
| 2025-08-26 | Norwich | 0-3 | Southampton | League Cup |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton 2026-10-13
- Cardiff v Watford — match page 2026-10-13
- Burnley vs Charlton — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Birmingham vs Preston 2026-10-13
- Stoke City v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-10-13
- QPR vs Derby 2026-10-14
- Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd — match page 2026-10-14
- Lincoln vs West Ham — team news & stats 2026-10-14
Before and after this match
- Norwich, previous: Swansea vs Norwich: odds and pick
- Southampton, previous: Southampton vs Portsmouth prediction