Swansea vs Norwich preview
Swansea faces Norwich with a 45% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Swansea's expected goals stand at 2.64, while Norwich's is 1.29. The market suggests a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 68%.
However, Swansea's recent form shows a mix of results with three wins in their last six matches, while Norwich has struggled, losing four of their last six. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making the confidence grade a C. The head-to-head record favors Swansea, with one win and one draw in their last two encounters against Norwich.
Swansea vs Norwich: model vs market
| Source | Swansea | Draw | Norwich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Published | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Edge | +28% | -9% | -19% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Swansea below the model: +27.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Swansea vs Norwich odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Swansea, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 2.50 | 2.45 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.40 | -0.02 |
| Norwich | 2.62 | 2.63 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Swansea and Norwich expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.92
- Attack rating (Swansea / Norwich)
- 1.16 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Swansea / Norwich)
- 0.77 / 1.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Swansea vs Norwich score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Swansea goals. Columns: Norwich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Swansea vs Norwich goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Swansea vs Norwich
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Norwich | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Swansea or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Norwich) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win by 2+ | 45% | 2.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Swansea and Norwich recent form
Swansea
4W 1D 1L
Norwich
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Swansea at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Norwich away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Swansea at home only, Norwich away only.
Swansea vs Norwich head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Swansea 1 · draws 1 · Norwich 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Norwich | 1-1 | Swansea | England Championship |
| 2025-10-25 | Swansea | 2-1 | Norwich | England Championship |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Watford v Burnley — match page 2026-10-10
- Preston vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln 2026-10-10
- Blackburn v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-10
- Bolton vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
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