West Brom vs Birmingham preview
In the Championship fixture between West Brom and Birmingham, the model gives West Brom a 43% chance to win, while Birmingham has a 30% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.62 for West Brom and 1.10 for Birmingham.
Both teams to score stands at 55%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 51%. The recent form shows West Brom with two wins in their last six matches, while Birmingham has three wins in the same period. The confidence grade is C, indicating that while the probabilities suggest a West Brom win, the recent draws in their head-to-head meetings could lead to a different outcome.
West Brom vs Birmingham: model vs market
| Source | West Brom | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Published | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Edge | +7% | 0% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.10.
- The market prices West Brom below the model: +7.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
West Brom vs Birmingham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on West Brom, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 2.24 | 2.26 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.40 | +0.12 |
| Birmingham | 3.10 | 2.90 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
West Brom and Birmingham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (West Brom / Birmingham)
- 0.99 / 1.11
- Defence rating (West Brom / Birmingham)
- 0.82 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
West Brom vs Birmingham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: West Brom goals. Columns: Birmingham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
West Brom vs Birmingham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for West Brom vs Birmingham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Birmingham | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (West Brom or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Birmingham) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | West Brom win by 2+ | 26% | 3.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
West Brom and Birmingham recent form
West Brom
2W 2D 2L
Birmingham
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
West Brom at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: West Brom at home only, Birmingham away only.
West Brom vs Birmingham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: West Brom 0 · draws 2 · Birmingham 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | Birmingham | 0-0 | West Brom | England Championship |
| 2025-11-26 | West Brom | 1-1 | Birmingham | England Championship |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Swansea vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Charlton vs Bristol City 2026-10-10
- Watford v Burnley — match page 2026-10-10
- Preston vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln 2026-10-10
- Blackburn v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-10
- Bolton vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Derby vs Wrexham 2026-10-10