Blackburn vs Cardiff Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Blackburn vs Cardiff preview

Blackburn hosts Cardiff in the Championship with a 1X2 probability of 37% for both teams and a 26% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% probability. Both teams to score stands at 66%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 64%.

Blackburn's expected goals are 1.74, compared to Cardiff's 1.57. Recent form shows Blackburn with two draws and four games without a win, while Cardiff has one win in their last six matches. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. Factors like team performance on the day or unexpected events could impact the outcome.

Blackburn vs Cardiff: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Blackburn	Draw	Cardiff
Model	41%	25%	34%
Market	35%	27%	38%
Published	37%	26%	37%
Edge	+6%	-2%	-4%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Blackburn vs Cardiff odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cardiff, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.71Now 2.45 -0.26

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Blackburn	2.36	2.62	+0.26
Draw	3.54	3.50	-0.04
Cardiff	2.71	2.45	-0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Blackburn and Cardiff expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74Blackburn

1.57Cardiff

Total expected goals: 3.30
Attack rating (Blackburn / Cardiff): 1.07 / 1.18
Defence rating (Blackburn / Cardiff): 1.10 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Blackburn vs Cardiff score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 4.8% 4.5% 2.4% 1.3% 1 5.4% 11.0% 7.8% 4.1% 2.3% 2 5.5% 8.7% 6.8% 3.6% 2.0% 3 3.2% 5.0% 3.9% 2.1% 1.1% 4+ 2.1% 3.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.7%

Rows: Blackburn goals. Columns: Cardiff goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Blackburn vs Cardiff goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 42%

Both teams to score: 66%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Blackburn vs Cardiff

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Blackburn	37%	2.71
	Draw	26%	3.82
	Cardiff	37%	2.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.56
	Under 2.5	36%	2.79
Both teams to score	Yes	66%	1.51
	No	34%	2.96
Double chance	1X (Blackburn or draw)	63%	1.59
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Cardiff)	63%	1.58
Handicap -1	Cardiff win by 2+	17%	5.91
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Blackburn and Cardiff recent form

Blackburn 1W 2D 3L

Cardiff 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Blackburn at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-2
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.75
Goals against / match: 1.50
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Cardiff away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.75
Goals against / match: 1.75
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Blackburn at home only, Cardiff away only.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

West Brom v Birmingham — match page 2026-10-10
Swansea vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Watford v Burnley — match page 2026-10-10
Preston vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln 2026-10-10
Bolton vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Derby vs Wrexham 2026-10-10
Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers — match page 2026-10-10

Prediction snapshot Cardiff to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Cardiff