Watford vs Burnley Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Watford vs Burnley preview

In the Championship fixture between Watford and Burnley, the 1X2 probabilities show Burnley at 40%, Watford at 32%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of Watford at 1.17 and Burnley at 1.24.

Both teams to score stands at 50%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, Watford's recent form shows three losses in their last five matches, while Burnley has not won in their last six games, which could affect performance. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.

Watford vs Burnley: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Watford	Draw	Burnley
Model	33%	30%	37%
Market	31%	27%	42%
Published	32%	28%	40%
Edge	+2%	+3%	-5%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Watford vs Burnley odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Burnley, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.49Now 2.23 -0.26

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Watford	2.70	2.95	+0.25
Draw	3.28	3.45	+0.17
Burnley	2.49	2.23	-0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Watford and Burnley expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Watford

1.24Burnley

Total expected goals: 2.41
Attack rating (Watford / Burnley): 0.66 / 0.79
Defence rating (Watford / Burnley): 1.29 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Watford vs Burnley score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.3% 9.9% 6.9% 2.9% 1.2% 1 9.2% 14.3% 8.1% 3.3% 1.4% 2 6.1% 7.6% 4.7% 2.0% 0.8% 3 2.4% 3.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Watford vs Burnley goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 43%

Over 3.5 22%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Watford vs Burnley

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Watford	32%	3.14
	Draw	28%	3.61
	Burnley	40%	2.48
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	43%	2.31
	Under 2.5	57%	1.76
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	1.99
	No	50%	2.01
Double chance	1X (Watford or draw)	60%	1.68
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Burnley)	68%	1.47
Handicap -1	Burnley win by 2+	17%	6.05
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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Watford and Burnley recent form

Watford 1W 1D 4L

Burnley 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Watford at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-1
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 1.25
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.

Burnley away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 2.75
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Watford at home only, Burnley away only.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

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Swansea vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Preston vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln 2026-10-10
Blackburn v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-10
Bolton vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Derby vs Wrexham 2026-10-10
Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers — match page 2026-10-10

Prediction snapshot Burnley to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Burnley