Bolton vs Stoke City preview
Bolton faces Stoke City in the Championship, with Stoke City slightly favored at 37% to win compared to Bolton's 36%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring 8% of the time. Both teams have shown attacking potential, with Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 67%.
Bolton's recent form shows two wins followed by four losses, while Stoke City has three wins, a draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This disparity in form could influence the outcome. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that the probabilities are not strongly supported by the data.
Bolton vs Stoke City: model vs market
| Source | Bolton | Draw | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 25% | 37% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Published | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Edge | +4% | -3% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bolton vs Stoke City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stoke City, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 2.74 | 2.63 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.30 | +0.02 |
| Stoke City | 2.47 | 2.49 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bolton and Stoke City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Bolton / Stoke City)
- 1.14 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Bolton / Stoke City)
- 1.25 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bolton vs Stoke City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bolton goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bolton vs Stoke City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bolton vs Stoke City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 36% | 2.78 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Stoke City | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bolton or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Stoke City) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stoke City win by 2+ | 19% | 5.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Bolton and Stoke City recent form
Bolton
2W 0D 4L
Stoke City
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bolton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Stoke City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bolton at home only, Stoke City away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- West Brom v Birmingham — match page 2026-10-10
- Swansea vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Watford v Burnley — match page 2026-10-10
- Preston vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln 2026-10-10
- Blackburn v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-10
- Derby vs Wrexham 2026-10-10
- Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers — match page 2026-10-10