Derby vs Wrexham preview
The fixture between Derby and Wrexham shows a close matchup, with Derby holding a 36% chance to win, while Wrexham is at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Derby, which has a 9% probability. However, the recent form indicates Derby has struggled, with four losses in their last six matches, which could impact their performance.
The statistics suggest a 49% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability for both teams to score. Expected goals are slightly in favor of Derby at 1.40 compared to Wrexham's 1.24. With a confidence grade of C, the probabilities are influenced by market odds, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
Derby vs Wrexham: model vs market
| Source | Derby | Draw | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Published | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
- The market prices Derby below the model: +4.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Derby vs Wrexham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Derby, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 2.90 | 2.63 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 3.22 | 3.25 | +0.03 |
| Wrexham | 2.36 | 2.56 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Derby and Wrexham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Derby / Wrexham)
- 0.82 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Derby / Wrexham)
- 1.18 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Derby vs Wrexham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Derby goals. Columns: Wrexham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Derby vs Wrexham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Derby vs Wrexham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Wrexham | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Derby or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Wrexham) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Derby win by 2+ | 19% | 5.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Derby and Wrexham recent form
Derby
1W 1D 4L
Wrexham
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Derby at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wrexham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Derby at home only, Wrexham away only.
Derby vs Wrexham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Derby 0 · draws 1 · Wrexham 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Derby | 1-2 | Wrexham | England Championship |
| 2025-09-27 | Wrexham | 1-1 | Derby | England Championship |
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