Southampton vs Portsmouth preview
Southampton faces Portsmouth in the Championship, with a 58% probability for a Southampton win according to the model 1X2. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. The match could deviate from this prediction if Portsmouth improves their recent form, which includes two draws and a win in their last three matches.
The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 67%, while both teams to score has a probability of 64%. Southampton's expected goals are 2.22, compared to Portsmouth's 1.24. This suggests a strong attacking performance from Southampton, but if Portsmouth manages to score, it could impact the outcome significantly. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Southampton vs Portsmouth: model vs market
| Source | Southampton | Draw | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Edge | 0% | -2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Southampton vs Portsmouth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Southampton, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 1.49 | 1.59 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.00 | -0.20 |
| Portsmouth | 6.00 | 5.03 | -0.97 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Southampton and Portsmouth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Southampton / Portsmouth)
- 1.45 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Southampton / Portsmouth)
- 1.02 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Southampton vs Portsmouth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: Portsmouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Southampton vs Portsmouth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Southampton vs Portsmouth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 58% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Portsmouth | 19% | 5.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Southampton or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Portsmouth) | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win by 2+ | 37% | 2.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Southampton and Portsmouth recent form
Southampton
3W 2D 1L
Portsmouth
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Southampton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Portsmouth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Southampton at home only, Portsmouth away only.
Southampton vs Portsmouth head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Southampton 0 · draws 2 · Portsmouth 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Portsmouth | 1-1 | Southampton | England Championship |
| 2025-09-14 | Southampton | 0-0 | Portsmouth | England Championship |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Watford v Burnley — match page 2026-10-10
- Preston vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln 2026-10-10
- Blackburn v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-10
- Bolton vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Derby vs Wrexham 2026-10-10
- Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers — match page 2026-10-10