Lincoln vs West Ham preview
In the fixture between Lincoln and West Ham, the 1X2 probabilities show West Ham at 48%, Lincoln at 29%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The expected goals indicate Lincoln at 1.55 and West Ham at 2.02, suggesting a competitive match.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both sit at 69% according to our model. However, Lincoln's recent form includes two draws and a loss in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. West Ham, on the other hand, has won four of their last five games, potentially giving them an edge.
Lincoln vs West Ham: model vs market
| Source | Lincoln | Draw | West Ham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.47.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Lincoln and West Ham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.40
- Attack rating (Lincoln / West Ham)
- 0.97 / 1.68
- Defence rating (Lincoln / West Ham)
- 0.95 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lincoln vs West Ham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lincoln goals. Columns: West Ham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lincoln vs West Ham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lincoln vs West Ham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lincoln | 28% | 3.52 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| West Ham | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lincoln or draw) | 52% | 1.91 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or West Ham) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | West Ham win by 2+ | 27% | 3.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Lincoln and West Ham recent form
Lincoln
2W 2D 2L
West Ham
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lincoln at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
West Ham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lincoln at home only, West Ham away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton 2026-10-13
- Cardiff v Watford — match page 2026-10-13
- Burnley vs Charlton — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Birmingham vs Preston 2026-10-13
- Stoke City v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-10-13
- Norwich vs Southampton — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- QPR vs Derby 2026-10-14
- Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd — match page 2026-10-14
Before and after this match
- Lincoln, previous: Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln: odds and pick
- West Ham, previous: West Ham – QPR, 2026-10-09