West Ham vs QPR preview
West Ham hosts QPR with a 61% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the high expectation for Over 2.5 goals at 68%. West Ham's recent form shows five wins in their last six matches, while QPR has drawn three of their last four games.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. QPR's ability to secure a draw in their recent matches could disrupt West Ham's momentum. Additionally, while both teams to score is at 63%, QPR's expected goals of 1.16 suggest they may struggle to find the net against a strong West Ham defense.
West Ham vs QPR: model vs market
| Source | West Ham | Draw | QPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 17% |
| Published | 61% | 21% | 17% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
West Ham vs QPR odds movement
Median bookmaker price on West Ham, 34 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 1.42 | 1.52 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 4.55 | 4.33 | -0.22 |
| QPR | 6.55 | 5.35 | -1.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
West Ham and QPR expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (West Ham / QPR)
- 1.76 / 0.86
- Defence rating (West Ham / QPR)
- 1.12 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
West Ham vs QPR score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: West Ham goals. Columns: QPR goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
West Ham vs QPR goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for West Ham vs QPR
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Ham | 61% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.71 | |
| QPR | 17% | 5.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (West Ham or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or QPR) | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | West Ham win by 2+ | 41% | 2.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
West Ham and QPR recent form
West Ham
4W 1D 1L
QPR
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
West Ham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
QPR away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: West Ham at home only, QPR away only.
West Ham vs QPR head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: West Ham 1 · draws 0 · QPR 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | West Ham | 2-1 | QPR | England FA Cup |
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