Updated

England Championship · Matchday 10

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough

· bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent· Referee Elliot Bell

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Middlesbrough to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Stoke CityDrawMiddlesbrough

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStoke CityDrawMiddlesbrough
Model42%26%32%
Market27%26%47%
Published31%26%44%
Edge+4%0%-4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Middlesbrough, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 1.94Now 1.99 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Stoke City3.563.52-0.04
Draw3.603.64+0.04
Middlesbrough1.941.99+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Stoke City and Middlesbrough expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68Stoke City
1.45Middlesbrough
Total expected goals
3.13
Attack rating (Stoke City / Middlesbrough)
1.14 / 1.17
Defence rating (Stoke City / Middlesbrough)
1.02 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 5.3% 4.6% 2.2% 1.1% 1 6.3% 11.7% 7.7% 3.7% 1.9% 2 6.2% 8.9% 6.5% 3.1% 1.6% 3 3.4% 5.0% 3.6% 1.8% 0.9% 4+ 2.1% 3.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: Stoke City goals. Columns: Middlesbrough goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Stoke City31%3.27
Draw26%3.87
Middlesbrough44%2.29
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.65
Under 2.539%2.54
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.73
Double chance1X (Stoke City or draw)56%1.77
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Middlesbrough)69%1.44
Handicap -1Middlesbrough win by 2+15%6.49
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Stoke City and Middlesbrough recent form

Stoke City 5W 1D 0L
Middlesbrough 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Stoke City at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.

Middlesbrough away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Stoke City at home only, Middlesbrough away only.

Injuries & availability

Stoke City absences

  • A. Ampah inactive
  • A. Cresswell knee injury
  • M. Talovierov suspended
  • S. Gallagher inactive
  • S. Ingelsson muscle injury

Middlesbrough absences

  • A. Jones calf injury
  • D. Strelec inactive
  • R. Pukstas inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Stoke City lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 V. Johansson
  2. 5 L. Graham
  3. 22 J. Tchamadeu
  4. 16 B. Wilmot
  5. 17 E. Bocat
  6. 8 E. Galbraith
  7. 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
  8. 2 B. Johnson
  9. 10 Bae Jun-Ho
  10. 11 L. Cissé
  11. 7 J. McGlynn

Bench: B. Pearson, R. Boženík, J. Devenny, G. Hirst, B. Lawal, L. Bombino, B. Gibson, J. Griffiths, M. Manhoef

Middlesbrough lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 R. Vítek
  2. 29 A. Malanda
  3. 4 A. Phillips
  4. 12 L. Ayling
  5. 30 Neto Borges
  6. 10 A. Morris
  7. 6 S. Berhalter
  8. 2 C. Brittain
  9. 16 J. Sarmiento
  10. 11 A. Cozier-Duberry
  11. 7 W. Lankshear

Bench: S. Byram, R. McGree, T. Conway, M. Peart-Harris, M. Arfsten, C. Barron, Leo Castledine, K. Joseph, S. Brynn

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Stoke City 3 · draws 3 · Middlesbrough 4.

Stoke CityDrawsMiddlesbrough
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-21Stoke City1-2MiddlesbroughEngland Championship
2025-09-30Middlesbrough0-0Stoke CityEngland Championship
2025-02-25Stoke City1-3MiddlesbroughChampionship
2024-09-28Middlesbrough2-0Stoke CityChampionship
2024-08-27Middlesbrough0-5Stoke CityLeague Cup
2024-03-02Stoke City2-0MiddlesbroughChampionship
2023-10-28Middlesbrough0-2Stoke CityChampionship
2023-03-14Middlesbrough1-1Stoke CityChampionship
2022-08-17Stoke City2-2MiddlesbroughChampionship
2022-04-30Middlesbrough3-1Stoke CityChampionship

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match