Stoke City vs Middlesbrough: model vs market
| Source | Stoke City | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Stoke City and Middlesbrough expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (Stoke City / Middlesbrough)
- 1.10 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Stoke City / Middlesbrough)
- 1.05 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stoke City goals. Columns: Middlesbrough goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stoke City | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Middlesbrough | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stoke City or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Middlesbrough) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stoke City win by 2+ | 24% | 4.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stoke City and Middlesbrough recent form
Stoke City
4W 1D 1L
Middlesbrough
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stoke City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Middlesbrough away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stoke City at home only, Middlesbrough away only.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Stoke City 0 · draws 1 · Middlesbrough 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | Stoke City | 1-2 | Middlesbrough | England Championship |
| 2025-09-30 | Middlesbrough | 0-0 | Stoke City | England Championship |
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