Millwall vs Swansea: model vs market
| Source | Millwall | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Millwall and Swansea expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Millwall / Swansea)
- 1.07 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Millwall / Swansea)
- 1.15 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Millwall vs Swansea score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Millwall goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Millwall vs Swansea goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Millwall vs Swansea
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 27% | 3.74 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Swansea | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Millwall or draw) | 54% | 1.86 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Swansea) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win by 2+ | 25% | 4.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Millwall and Swansea recent form
Millwall
1W 2D 3L
Swansea
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Millwall at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Swansea away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Millwall at home only, Swansea away only.
Millwall vs Swansea head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Millwall 1 · draws 1 · Swansea 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Millwall | 2-1 | Swansea | England Championship |
| 2025-09-27 | Swansea | 1-1 | Millwall | England Championship |
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