Updated

England Championship · Matchday 10

Millwall vs Swansea

· The Den, London· Referee Edward Duckworth

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Millwall to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MillwallDrawSwansea

Millwall vs Swansea: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMillwallDrawSwansea
Model28%28%44%
Market39%28%33%
Published36%28%36%
Edge-3%0%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Millwall vs Swansea odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Millwall, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.36Now 2.40 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Millwall2.362.40+0.04
Draw3.303.31+0.02
Swansea2.872.88+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Millwall and Swansea expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14Millwall
1.50Swansea
Total expected goals
2.63
Attack rating (Millwall / Swansea)
1.04 / 1.18
Defence rating (Millwall / Swansea)
1.05 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Millwall vs Swansea score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.4% 9.5% 8.1% 4.0% 2.1% 1 6.9% 13.4% 9.2% 4.6% 2.4% 2 4.6% 6.9% 5.2% 2.6% 1.4% 3 1.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 4+ 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Millwall goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Millwall vs Swansea goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Millwall vs Swansea

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Millwall36%2.76
Draw28%3.54
Swansea36%2.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.04
Under 2.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.85
No46%2.17
Double chance1X (Millwall or draw)64%1.55
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Swansea)64%1.57
Handicap -1Millwall win by 2+11%8.79
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Millwall and Swansea recent form

Millwall 2W 2D 2L
Swansea 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Millwall at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.

Swansea away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Millwall at home only, Swansea away only.

Injuries & availability

Millwall absences

  • C. De Norre muscle injury
  • J. Coburn muscle injury
  • L. Jensen muscle injury
  • M. Ivanovic hamstring injury
  • M. Luongo knee injury
  • M. Servais inactive
  • R. Esse ankle injury

Swansea absences

  • A. Idah knock
  • C. Burgess achilles tendon injury
  • J. Key muscle injury
  • S. Eustaquio shoulder injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Millwall lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 34 F. Marschall
  2. 3 Zak Norton Sturge
  3. 5 J. Cooper
  4. 6 C. Taylor
  5. 2 J. Osei-Tutu
  6. 14 Jenson Metcalfe
  7. 49 D. Mazou-Sacko
  8. 22 K. Lisbie
  9. 10 C. Neghli
  10. 17 M. Sykes
  11. 13 L. Dykes

Bench: T. Crama, E. Baggott, M. Crocombe, D. Kelly, R. Leonard, L. Cundle, Z. Lovelace, Y. Issoufou, A. Doughty

Swansea lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 22 L. Vigouroux
  2. 14 J. Tymon
  3. 3 J. Seelt
  4. 5 B. Cabango
  5. 26 F. Lissah
  6. 6 M. Stamenić
  7. 4 J. Fulton
  8. 8 E. Just
  9. 49 M. Yeo
  10. 9 Z. Vipotnik
  11. 30 Joseph Okopu

Bench: A. Fisher, M. Widell, Eom Ji-Sung, Tom Iorpenda, Gonçalo Franco, S. Welsh, R. Stewart, A. Idah, Ronald

Millwall vs Swansea head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Millwall 5 · draws 3 · Swansea 2.

MillwallDrawsSwansea
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-04Millwall2-1SwanseaEngland Championship
2025-09-27Swansea1-1MillwallEngland Championship
2025-04-26Millwall1-0SwanseaChampionship
2024-10-26Swansea0-1MillwallChampionship
2024-05-04Swansea0-1MillwallChampionship
2023-09-30Millwall0-3SwanseaChampionship
2023-03-14Millwall2-1SwanseaChampionship
2022-08-16Swansea2-2MillwallChampionship
2022-04-05Millwall0-1SwanseaChampionship
2021-09-15Swansea0-0MillwallChampionship

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match