Millwall vs Lincoln Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Millwall vs Lincoln: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Millwall	Draw	Lincoln
Model	57%	24%	18%
Market	57%	24%	19%
Published	57%	24%	19%
Edge	0%	0%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.98.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Millwall vs Lincoln odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Millwall, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.88Now 1.65 -0.23

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Millwall	1.88	1.65	-0.23
Draw	3.55	3.85	+0.30
Lincoln	3.80	4.97	+1.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Millwall and Lincoln expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.87Millwall

0.98Lincoln

Total expected goals: 2.85
Attack rating (Millwall / Lincoln): 0.93 / 0.77
Defence rating (Millwall / Lincoln): 1.03 / 1.41

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Millwall vs Lincoln score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 4.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 1 9.8% 11.7% 5.2% 1.7% 0.5% 2 10.1% 9.9% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 3 6.3% 6.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 4.5% 4.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Millwall goals. Columns: Lincoln goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Millwall vs Lincoln goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 32%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Millwall vs Lincoln

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Millwall	57%	1.76
	Draw	24%	4.10
	Lincoln	19%	5.34
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.85
	Under 2.5	46%	2.18
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.86
	No	46%	2.17
Double chance	1X (Millwall or draw)	81%	1.23
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Lincoln)	43%	2.32
Handicap -1	Millwall win by 2+	34%	2.94
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Millwall and Lincoln recent form

Millwall 1W 2D 3L

Lincoln 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Millwall at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-2
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 1.80
Goals against / match: 1.20
Clean sheets: 2 of 5

They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.

Lincoln away

Record (W-D-L): 3-0-2
Win rate: 60%
Goals for / match: 0.80
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 3 of 5

They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Millwall at home only, Lincoln away only.