Lincoln vs Burnley preview
In the upcoming fixture between Lincoln and Burnley, the 1X2 probabilities show Burnley at 46%, Lincoln at 28%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The model also indicates a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 62%.
Lincoln's expected goals stand at 1.34, while Burnley has a higher figure of 1.75. Recent form shows Lincoln with a record of D-L-L-L-W-W and Burnley at L-D-W-D-L-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome, which could affect predictions.
Lincoln vs Burnley: model vs market
| Source | Lincoln | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.34.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Lincoln and Burnley expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Lincoln / Burnley)
- 0.81 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Lincoln / Burnley)
- 1.39 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lincoln vs Burnley score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lincoln goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lincoln vs Burnley goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lincoln vs Burnley
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lincoln | 28% | 3.52 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Burnley | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lincoln or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Burnley) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Burnley win by 2+ | 25% | 3.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lincoln and Burnley recent form
Lincoln
2W 1D 3L
Burnley
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lincoln at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Burnley away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lincoln at home only, Burnley away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sheffield Utd v Derby — match page 2026-10-24
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford — match page 2026-10-24
- Cardiff vs Birmingham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- West Ham vs Southampton 2026-10-24
- Preston v West Brom — match page 2026-10-24
- Blackburn vs Wrexham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- QPR vs Swansea 2026-10-24
- Stoke City v Bristol City — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Lincoln, previous: Millwall vs Lincoln: odds and pick
- Burnley, previous: Burnley – Wolverhampton Wanderers, 2026-10-16