QPR vs Swansea preview
In the upcoming match between QPR and Swansea, the 1X2 probabilities show QPR at 27%, a draw at 30%, and Swansea at 42%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance according to our model. QPR has an expected goals figure of 1.00, while Swansea sits at 1.31, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
Both teams to score stands at 48%, suggesting a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, QPR's recent form of L-W-D-D-D-D could hinder their performance, while Swansea's recent W-W-W-W-L form may boost their confidence. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
QPR vs Swansea: model vs market
| Source | QPR | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 30% | 42% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 30% | 42% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
QPR and Swansea expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (QPR / Swansea)
- 0.99 / 1.04
- Defence rating (QPR / Swansea)
- 1.03 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
QPR vs Swansea score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: QPR goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
QPR vs Swansea goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for QPR vs Swansea
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 27% | 3.66 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Swansea | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (QPR or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Swansea) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win by 2+ | 20% | 5.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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QPR and Swansea recent form
QPR
1W 4D 1L
Swansea
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
QPR at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Swansea away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: QPR at home only, Swansea away only.
QPR vs Swansea head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: QPR 1 · draws 0 · Swansea 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | QPR | 1-2 | Swansea | England Championship |
| 2025-10-22 | Swansea | 0-1 | QPR | England Championship |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sheffield Utd v Derby — match page 2026-10-24
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford — match page 2026-10-24
- Cardiff vs Birmingham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- West Ham vs Southampton 2026-10-24
- Preston v West Brom — match page 2026-10-24
- Blackburn vs Wrexham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Stoke City v Bristol City — match page 2026-10-24
- Lincoln vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- QPR, previous: Birmingham v QPR analysis
- Swansea, previous: Swansea vs West Ham: odds and pick