Stoke City vs Bristol City preview
Stoke City has a 51% chance to win against Bristol City, whose probability stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with an 11% chance. Stoke City's expected goals are 1.58, while Bristol City's are lower at 0.96.
Recent form shows Stoke City with four wins in their last six matches, while Bristol City has lost four of their last six. Both teams to score has a 50% probability, and Over 2.5 goals is at 47%. However, if Bristol City improves its attacking performance, it could change the dynamics of the match.
Stoke City vs Bristol City: model vs market
| Source | Stoke City | Draw | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 28% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 28% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Stoke City and Bristol City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Stoke City / Bristol City)
- 1.15 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Stoke City / Bristol City)
- 1.00 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stoke City vs Bristol City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stoke City goals. Columns: Bristol City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stoke City vs Bristol City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stoke City vs Bristol City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stoke City | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Bristol City | 22% | 4.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stoke City or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Bristol City) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stoke City win by 2+ | 27% | 3.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stoke City and Bristol City recent form
Stoke City
4W 1D 1L
Bristol City
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stoke City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Bristol City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stoke City at home only, Bristol City away only.
Stoke City vs Bristol City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Stoke City 1 · draws 0 · Bristol City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Bristol City | 2-0 | Stoke City | England Championship |
| 2025-11-01 | Stoke City | 5-1 | Bristol City | England Championship |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sheffield Utd v Derby — match page 2026-10-24
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford — match page 2026-10-24
- Cardiff vs Birmingham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- West Ham vs Southampton 2026-10-24
- Preston v West Brom — match page 2026-10-24
- Blackburn vs Wrexham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- QPR vs Swansea 2026-10-24
- Lincoln vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Stoke City, previous: Derby – Stoke City, 2026-10-17
- Bristol City, previous: Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd: odds and pick