West Ham vs Southampton preview
In the fixture between West Ham and Southampton, the 1X2 probabilities show West Ham at 54%, while Southampton sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. West Ham's expected goals are 1.96, compared to Southampton's 1.20, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 61%, suggesting a high likelihood of goals in the match. However, the confidence grade is C, which means there is some uncertainty. Recent form shows West Ham with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Southampton has 5 wins in their last 6. This could affect the outcome, making it less predictable.
Why this pick: West Ham vs Southampton
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (West Ham 10, Southampton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
West Ham vs Southampton: model vs market
| Source | West Ham | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.20.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
West Ham and Southampton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (West Ham / Southampton)
- 1.85 / 1.16
- Defence rating (West Ham / Southampton)
- 0.85 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
West Ham vs Southampton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: West Ham goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
West Ham vs Southampton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for West Ham vs Southampton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Ham | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Southampton | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (West Ham or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Southampton) | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | West Ham win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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West Ham and Southampton recent form
West Ham
3W 2D 1L
Southampton
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
West Ham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Southampton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: West Ham at home only, Southampton away only.
West Ham vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: West Ham 4 · draws 4 · Southampton 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Southampton | 1-4 | West Ham | League Cup |
| 2025-04-19 | West Ham | 1-1 | Southampton | Premier League |
| 2024-12-26 | Southampton | 0-1 | West Ham | Premier League |
| 2023-04-02 | West Ham | 1-0 | Southampton | Premier League |
| 2022-10-16 | Southampton | 1-1 | West Ham | Premier League |
| 2022-03-02 | Southampton | 3-1 | West Ham | FA Cup |
| 2021-12-26 | West Ham | 2-3 | Southampton | Premier League |
| 2021-09-11 | Southampton | 0-0 | West Ham | Premier League |
| 2021-05-23 | West Ham | 3-0 | Southampton | Premier League |
| 2020-12-29 | Southampton | 0-0 | West Ham | Premier League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sheffield Utd v Derby — match page 2026-10-24
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford — match page 2026-10-24
- Cardiff vs Birmingham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Preston v West Brom — match page 2026-10-24
- Blackburn vs Wrexham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- QPR vs Swansea 2026-10-24
- Stoke City v Bristol City — match page 2026-10-24
- Lincoln vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- West Ham, previous: Swansea vs West Ham: odds and pick
- Southampton, previous: Southampton – Bolton, 2026-10-17