Cardiff vs Birmingham preview
In the Championship fixture between Cardiff and Birmingham, the 1X2 probabilities show Cardiff at 34%, a draw at 23%, and Birmingham at 43%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a probability of 8%. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both stand at 71%, indicating a strong chance of a high-scoring match.
Cardiff's expected goals are 1.73, while Birmingham's are 1.94, suggesting an edge for the visitors in attack. However, Cardiff's recent form includes two draws and two losses, which could impact their performance. Birmingham, on the other hand, has won three of their last five matches, indicating better momentum.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: model vs market
| Source | Cardiff | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cardiff and Birmingham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (Cardiff / Birmingham)
- 1.38 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Cardiff / Birmingham)
- 1.19 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cardiff vs Birmingham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cardiff goals. Columns: Birmingham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cardiff vs Birmingham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cardiff vs Birmingham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 34% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Birmingham | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cardiff or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Birmingham) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win by 2+ | 24% | 4.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Cardiff and Birmingham recent form
Cardiff
2W 2D 2L
Birmingham
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cardiff at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cardiff at home only, Birmingham away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sheffield Utd v Derby — match page 2026-10-24
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford — match page 2026-10-24
- West Ham vs Southampton 2026-10-24
- Preston v West Brom — match page 2026-10-24
- Blackburn vs Wrexham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- QPR vs Swansea 2026-10-24
- Stoke City v Bristol City — match page 2026-10-24
- Lincoln vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Cardiff, previous: Middlesbrough vs Cardiff prediction
- Birmingham, previous: Birmingham v QPR analysis