Birmingham vs QPR: model vs market
| Source | Birmingham | Draw | QPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Birmingham vs QPR odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Birmingham, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 2.00 | 1.98 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.53 | 3.52 | -0.01 |
| QPR | 3.60 | 3.55 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Birmingham and QPR expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Birmingham / QPR)
- 1.25 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Birmingham / QPR)
- 0.96 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Birmingham vs QPR score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Birmingham goals. Columns: QPR goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Birmingham vs QPR goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Birmingham vs QPR
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| QPR | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Birmingham or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or QPR) | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win by 2+ | 24% | 4.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Birmingham and QPR recent form
Birmingham
3W 2D 1L
QPR
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Birmingham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-0
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
QPR away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Birmingham at home only, QPR away only.
Injuries & availability
Birmingham absences
-
M. Leonard
achilles tendon injury
- Paik Seung-Ho health problems
QPR absences
- A. S. Mbengue knee injury
- D. Cirkin suspended
-
I. Chair
muscle injury
-
J. Obikwu
health problems
-
K. Dembele
knee injury
- K. Saito inactive
- R. Burrell inactive
-
T. Lamptey
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Birmingham lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Beadle
- 20 A. Cochrane
- 4 C. Klarer
- 5 P. Neumann
- 26 B. Osayi-Samuel
- 14 J. Solis
- 24 T. Iwata
- 17 L. Millar
- 28 J. Stansfield
- 16 P. Roberts
- 9 A. Priske
Bench: E. Laird, Carlos Vicente, D. Gray, M. Bird, T. Gardner-Hickman, R. Allsop, D. Fry, L. Vázquez, M. Ducksch
QPR lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 P. Charles
- 12 B. Kemper
- 6 J. Clarke-Salter
- 3 J. Dunne
- 2 K. Adamson
- 5 R. Edwards
- 18 G. Kamara
- 17 K. Poku
- 20 H. Vale
- 11 P. Smyth
- 26 Rayan Jawad Kolli
Bench: L. Morrison, C. Ward, K. Saito, R. Kone, I. Alemayehu, N. Madsen, Justin Patrick Nnamdi Obikwu, J. Varane
Birmingham vs QPR head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Birmingham 4 · draws 2 · QPR 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Birmingham | 1-0 | QPR | England Championship |
| 2025-12-09 | QPR | 2-1 | Birmingham | England Championship |
| 2024-03-29 | QPR | 2-1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2023-09-22 | Birmingham | 0-0 | QPR | Championship |
| 2023-03-18 | QPR | 0-1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2022-10-28 | Birmingham | 2-0 | QPR | Championship |
| 2022-01-02 | Birmingham | 1-2 | QPR | Championship |
| 2021-09-28 | QPR | 2-0 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2021-02-27 | Birmingham | 2-1 | QPR | Championship |
| 2020-10-24 | QPR | 0-0 | Birmingham | Championship |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers 2026-10-16
- Watford v Charlton — match page 2026-10-17
- Millwall vs Lincoln — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Middlesbrough vs Cardiff 2026-10-17
- Southampton v Bolton — match page 2026-10-17
- Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd 2026-10-17
- West Brom v Blackburn — match page 2026-10-17
- Derby vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Birmingham, previous: Birmingham vs Preston prediction
- Birmingham, next: Cardiff v Birmingham analysis
- QPR, previous: QPR v Derby analysis
- QPR, next: QPR v Swansea analysis