Updated

England Championship · Matchday 11

West Brom vs Blackburn

· The Hawthorns, West Bromwich· Referee Adam Herczeg

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was West Brom to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
West BromDrawBlackburn

West Brom vs Blackburn: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWest BromDrawBlackburn
Model39%30%31%
Market50%27%24%
Published47%28%25%
Edge-11%+3%+7%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

West Brom vs Blackburn odds movement

Median bookmaker price on West Brom, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-14.

Opened 1.87Now 1.89 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
West Brom1.871.89+0.02
Draw3.543.52-0.02
Blackburn3.953.98+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

West Brom and Blackburn expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29West Brom
1.12Blackburn
Total expected goals
2.42
Attack rating (West Brom / Blackburn)
0.96 / 1.09
Defence rating (West Brom / Blackburn)
0.84 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

West Brom vs Blackburn score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 8.8% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 1 10.2% 14.3% 7.3% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.4% 8.4% 4.7% 1.8% 0.6% 3 3.2% 3.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.4% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: West Brom goals. Columns: Blackburn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

West Brom vs Blackburn goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for West Brom vs Blackburn

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2West Brom47%2.13
Draw28%3.63
Blackburn25%3.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.30
Under 2.557%1.77
Both teams to scoreYes50%1.99
No50%2.01
Double chance1X (West Brom or draw)75%1.34
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Blackburn)53%1.89
Handicap -1West Brom win by 2+18%5.52
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

West Brom and Blackburn recent form

West Brom 3W 1D 2L
Blackburn 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

West Brom at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Blackburn away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-1
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: West Brom at home only, Blackburn away only.

Injuries & availability

West Brom absences

  • M. Johnston broken leg
  • N. Galves knee injury

Blackburn absences

  • A. Forshaw hip injury
  • L. Miller achilles tendon injury
  • M. Litherland muscle injury
  • S. Wharton achilles tendon injury
  • Y. Ohashi hamstring injury
  • Y. Ribeiro hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

West Brom lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 M. O’Leary
  2. 4 C. Styles
  3. 6 G. Campbell
  4. 2 C. Mepham
  5. 18 B. Pereira
  6. 21 I. Price
  7. 15 Tobias Christopher Collyer
  8. 8 J. Molumby
  9. 20 R. Nzingoula
  10. 11 J. Morgan
  11. 9 B. Stewart

Bench: N. Phillips, F. Myhre, M. Ingram, O. Diakité, A. Heggebø, C. Townsend, T. Bany, K. Tunde, Harry Whitwell

Blackburn lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 B. Tóth
  2. 3 H. Pickering
  3. 15 S. McLoughlin
  4. 6 Tom Atcheson
  5. 2 R. Alebiosu
  6. 31 Kristi Montgomery
  7. 8 Sam Morsy
  8. 21 O. Afolayan
  9. 10 T. Cantwell
  10. 25 R. Morishita
  11. 9 A. Guðjohnsen

Bench: A. Pears, A. Kargbo, J. Fevrier, D. De Neve, H. Carter, M. Baradji, Gady Beyuku, M. Jørgensen, J. Garrett

West Brom vs Blackburn head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: West Brom 3 · draws 4 · Blackburn 3.

West BromDrawsBlackburn
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-06Blackburn0-0West BromEngland Championship
2025-08-09West Brom1-0BlackburnEngland Championship
2025-02-12West Brom0-2BlackburnChampionship
2024-10-23Blackburn0-0West BromChampionship
2024-01-13West Brom4-1BlackburnChampionship
2023-08-05Blackburn2-1West BromChampionship
2023-02-15West Brom1-1BlackburnChampionship
2022-08-14Blackburn2-1West BromChampionship
2022-02-14West Brom0-0BlackburnChampionship
2021-08-21Blackburn1-2West BromChampionship

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match