Updated

England Championship · Matchday 11

Derby vs Stoke City

· Pride Park Stadium, Derby· Referee Oliver Langford

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Stoke City to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
DerbyDrawStoke City

Derby vs Stoke City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDerbyDrawStoke City
Model25%24%51%
Market33%28%39%
Published31%27%42%
Edge-8%-4%+12%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.29.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Stoke City below the model: +11.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Derby vs Stoke City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Stoke City, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-13.

Opened 2.91Now 2.38 -0.53
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Derby2.432.85+0.43
Draw3.333.36+0.03
Stoke City2.912.38-0.53

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Derby and Stoke City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29Derby
1.92Stoke City
Total expected goals
3.21
Attack rating (Derby / Stoke City)
0.80 / 1.19
Defence rating (Derby / Stoke City)
1.32 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Derby vs Stoke City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 6.7% 7.4% 4.7% 3.5% 1 4.2% 11.0% 9.6% 6.1% 4.6% 2 3.4% 6.5% 6.2% 4.0% 2.9% 3 1.4% 2.8% 2.7% 1.7% 1.3% 4+ 0.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5%

Rows: Derby goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Derby vs Stoke City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Derby vs Stoke City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Derby31%3.25
Draw27%3.71
Stoke City42%2.36
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.61
Under 2.538%2.65
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.59
No37%2.70
Double chance1X (Derby or draw)58%1.73
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Stoke City)69%1.44
Handicap -1Stoke City win by 2+30%3.35
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Derby and Stoke City recent form

Derby 0W 2D 4L
Stoke City 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Derby at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Stoke City away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Derby at home only, Stoke City away only.

Injuries & availability

Derby absences

  • C. Forsyth knee injury
  • C. Taylor injury
  • D. Murkin hamstring injury
  • E. Cashin inactive
  • J. Widell Zetterstrom knee injury
  • M. Clarke calf injury
  • M. Johnston inactive
  • P. Agyemang achilles tendon injury
  • S. Langas injury

Stoke City absences

  • A. Ampah knee injury
  • A. Cresswell knee injury
  • S. Gallagher injury
  • S. Ingelsson muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Derby lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 J. Vickers
  2. 26 R. Hedges
  3. 28 D. Sanderson
  4. 24 R. Nyambe
  5. 23 J. Ward
  6. 4 D. Ozoh
  7. 27 L. Travis
  8. 8 B. Clark
  9. 11 S. Szmodics
  10. 16 M. Fuseini
  11. 9 C. Morris

Bench: R. Brewster, R. O'Donnell, F. Bilbija, L. Salvesen, H. Meister, O. Fraulo, C. Blackett-Taylor, Raymond Offor, I. Gordon

Stoke City lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 V. Johansson
  2. 5 L. Graham
  3. 16 B. Wilmot
  4. 18 B. Lawal
  5. 17 E. Bocat
  6. 8 E. Galbraith
  7. 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
  8. 2 B. Johnson
  9. 13 J. Devenny
  10. 11 L. Cissé
  11. 7 J. McGlynn

Bench: B. Pearson, R. Boženík, Bae Jun-Ho, G. Hirst, L. Bombino, J. Tchamadeu, J. Griffiths, M. Talovierov, M. Manhoef

Derby vs Stoke City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Derby 5 · draws 2 · Stoke City 3.

DerbyDrawsStoke City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-06Derby2-0Stoke CityEngland Championship
2025-08-09Stoke City3-1DerbyEngland Championship
2025-05-03Derby0-0Stoke CityChampionship
2024-11-02Stoke City2-1DerbyChampionship
2023-07-22Derby3-0Stoke CityFriendlies Clubs
2021-12-30Stoke City1-2DerbyChampionship
2021-09-18Derby2-1Stoke CityChampionship
2021-03-20Stoke City1-0DerbyChampionship
2020-12-12Derby0-0Stoke CityChampionship
2020-01-31Derby4-0Stoke CityChampionship

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match