Updated

England Championship · Matchday 11

Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd

· Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol· Referee Ben Speedie

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Bristol City to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bristol CityDrawSheffield Utd

Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBristol CityDrawSheffield Utd
Model35%28%37%
Market48%26%26%
Published44%27%29%
Edge-13%+2%+11%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bristol City, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.26Now 1.97 -0.29
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bristol City2.261.97-0.29
Draw3.503.54+0.04
Sheffield Utd3.013.60+0.59

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bristol City and Sheffield Utd expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.33Bristol City
1.39Sheffield Utd
Total expected goals
2.72
Attack rating (Bristol City / Sheffield Utd)
0.88 / 1.11
Defence rating (Bristol City / Sheffield Utd)
1.02 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.8% 7.9% 6.4% 2.9% 1.4% 1 7.6% 13.4% 8.4% 3.9% 1.8% 2 5.8% 8.1% 5.6% 2.6% 1.2% 3 2.6% 3.6% 2.5% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 1.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Bristol City goals. Columns: Sheffield Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bristol City44%2.26
Draw27%3.72
Sheffield Utd29%3.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.96
Under 2.549%2.04
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.77
No44%2.29
Double chance1X (Bristol City or draw)71%1.40
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Sheffield Utd)56%1.80
Handicap -1Bristol City win by 2+16%6.24
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bristol City and Sheffield Utd recent form

Bristol City 2W 1D 3L
Sheffield Utd 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bristol City at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-3
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sheffield Utd away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bristol City at home only, Sheffield Utd away only.

Injuries & availability

Bristol City absences

  • J. Williams inactive
  • L. Tolaj knock
  • N. Eile illness
  • R. Dickie knee injury

Sheffield Utd absences

  • F. Seriki knee injury
  • H. Choudhury suspended
  • J. Shackleton health problems

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bristol City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Tickle
  2. 3 C. Pring
  3. 5 R. Atkinson
  4. 15 L. McNally
  5. 19 G. Tanner
  6. 27 G. Yah
  7. 12 J. Knight
  8. 10 S. Twine
  9. 21 Rio Cardines
  10. 7 Y. Hirakawa
  11. 23 D. Ballard

Bench: L. Eissat, A. Randell, B. De Keersmaecker, S. Bell, T. Horvat, J. Wallace, S. Greenwood, B. Collins, E. Adebayo

Sheffield Utd lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 M. Cooper
  2. 14 H. Burrows
  3. 15 L. Kitching
  4. 5 J. Tanganga
  5. 25 M. McGuinness
  6. 22 B. Brereton
  7. 4 O. Arblaster
  8. 27 K. Phillips
  9. 19 T. Chong
  10. 10 J. Ayew
  11. 9 T. Cannon

Bench: S. McCallum, J. Rothwell, R. Donovan, A. Davies, T. Campbell, R. Oné, J. Baptiste, Sydie Peck, P. Bamford

Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bristol City 2 · draws 2 · Sheffield Utd 6.

Bristol CityDrawsSheffield Utd
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-06Bristol City1-0Sheffield UtdEngland Championship
2025-08-09Sheffield Utd1-4Bristol CityEngland Championship
2025-05-12Sheffield Utd3-0Bristol CityChampionship
2025-05-08Bristol City0-3Sheffield UtdChampionship
2025-03-11Sheffield Utd1-1Bristol CityChampionship
2024-11-05Bristol City1-2Sheffield UtdChampionship
2023-04-18Sheffield Utd1-0Bristol CityChampionship
2022-11-01Bristol City0-1Sheffield UtdChampionship
2022-04-18Bristol City1-1Sheffield UtdChampionship
2021-11-28Sheffield Utd2-0Bristol CityChampionship

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match