Updated

England Championship · Matchday 11

Southampton vs Bolton

· St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton· Referee Matt Donohue

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Southampton to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SouthamptonDrawBolton

Southampton vs Bolton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSouthamptonDrawBolton
Model61%21%18%
Market65%20%16%
Published64%20%16%
Edge-4%+2%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Southampton vs Bolton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Southampton, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-14.

Opened 1.40Now 1.44 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Southampton1.401.44+0.04
Draw4.904.78-0.12
Bolton6.505.90-0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Southampton and Bolton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.26Southampton
1.19Bolton
Total expected goals
3.45
Attack rating (Southampton / Bolton)
1.31 / 1.19
Defence rating (Southampton / Bolton)
0.81 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Southampton vs Bolton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 2.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 1 6.3% 9.4% 5.1% 2.0% 0.8% 2 8.1% 9.7% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9% 3 6.1% 7.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 5.9% 7.0% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6%

Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: Bolton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Southampton vs Bolton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Southampton vs Bolton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Southampton64%1.57
Draw20%5.01
Bolton16%6.09
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.49
Under 2.533%3.02
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.71
Double chance1X (Southampton or draw)84%1.20
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Bolton)36%2.75
Handicap -1Southampton win by 2+39%2.55
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Southampton and Bolton recent form

Southampton 4W 1D 1L
Bolton 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Southampton at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.20
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Bolton away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.80
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Southampton at home only, Bolton away only.

Injuries & availability

Southampton absences

  • F. Downes ankle injury

Bolton absences

  • C. Forino-Joseph groin injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Southampton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Daniel Peretz
  2. 34 Welington
  3. 13 K. Schlotterbeck
  4. 5 J. Stephens
  5. 14 J. Bree
  6. 26 Cameron Bragg
  7. 18 T. Fellows
  8. 7 Léo Scienza
  9. 10 F. Azaz
  10. 30 J. Ward-Prowse
  11. 9 C. Larin

Bench: R. Manning, Z. Abbott, C. Jander, L. Dobbin, N. Wood-Gordon, S. Edozie, G. Long, K. Matsuki, D. Mubama

Bolton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 G. Bazunu
  2. 14 A. Famewo
  3. 5 L. Brunt
  4. 18 E. Toal
  5. 22 Gaizka Larrazabal
  6. 27 Luca Stephenson
  7. 8 J. Sheehan
  8. 11 T. Gale
  9. 4 X. Simons
  10. 17 A. Ito
  11. 10 S. Dalby

Bench: J. Bonham, B. Davies, K. Dong, T. Bair, S. Iling-Junior, Ruben Rodrigues, E. Erhahon, M. Conway, R. Hardie

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match