Bolton vs Middlesbrough preview
In the upcoming match between Bolton and Middlesbrough, the 1X2 probabilities show Bolton at 38%, Middlesbrough at 39%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score stands at 73%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 72%.
Bolton's expected goals are 1.87, slightly lower than Middlesbrough's 1.89. Recent form indicates Bolton has won 2 out of their last 6 matches, while Middlesbrough has won 3 out of 6. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty. A key factor that could affect the outcome is the inconsistency in Bolton's recent performances.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: model vs market
| Source | Bolton | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 24% | 37% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 38% | 24% | 37% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bolton and Middlesbrough expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.42
- Attack rating (Bolton / Middlesbrough)
- 1.07 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Bolton / Middlesbrough)
- 1.06 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bolton goals. Columns: Middlesbrough goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bolton vs Middlesbrough
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 38% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Middlesbrough | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bolton or draw) | 63% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Middlesbrough) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolton win by 2+ | 20% | 4.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Bolton and Middlesbrough recent form
Bolton
3W 1D 2L
Middlesbrough
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bolton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Middlesbrough away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bolton at home only, Middlesbrough away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sheffield Utd v Derby — match page 2026-10-24
- Charlton vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Portsmouth vs Millwall 2026-10-24
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford — match page 2026-10-24
- Cardiff vs Birmingham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- West Ham vs Southampton 2026-10-24
- Preston v West Brom — match page 2026-10-24
- Blackburn vs Wrexham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Bolton, previous: Southampton – Bolton, 2026-10-17
- Middlesbrough, previous: Middlesbrough vs Cardiff prediction