Sheffield Utd vs Derby preview
Sheffield Utd has a 63% chance of winning against Derby, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 12%. The expected goals show Sheffield Utd at 1.97 and Derby at 0.83, indicating a significant advantage for the home side. However, Sheffield Utd's recent form includes three losses in their last six matches, which could impact their performance.
Derby’s recent record is poor, with six matches yielding only one draw and five losses. Both teams to score is at 50%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. If Sheffield Utd fails to convert their chances or if Derby finds unexpected form, these predictions could be challenged.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: model vs market
| Source | Sheffield Utd | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sheffield Utd and Derby expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Sheffield Utd / Derby)
- 1.07 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Sheffield Utd / Derby)
- 0.93 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sheffield Utd goals. Columns: Derby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sheffield Utd vs Derby
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheffield Utd | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Derby | 14% | 7.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sheffield Utd or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Derby) | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheffield Utd win by 2+ | 39% | 2.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sheffield Utd and Derby recent form
Sheffield Utd
2W 0D 4L
Derby
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sheffield Utd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Derby away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sheffield Utd at home only, Derby away only.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sheffield Utd 1 · draws 0 · Derby 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Derby | 1-2 | Sheffield Utd | England Championship |
| 2025-11-01 | Sheffield Utd | 1-3 | Derby | England Championship |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Charlton vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Portsmouth vs Millwall 2026-10-24
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford — match page 2026-10-24
- Cardiff vs Birmingham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- West Ham vs Southampton 2026-10-24
- Preston v West Brom — match page 2026-10-24
- Blackburn vs Wrexham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- QPR vs Swansea 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Sheffield Utd, previous: Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd: odds and pick
- Derby, previous: Derby – Stoke City, 2026-10-17