Portsmouth vs Millwall preview
Portsmouth face Millwall with a 44% chance of winning compared to Millwall's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.57 for Portsmouth and 1.23 for Millwall. The model suggests a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 57%.
However, Portsmouth's recent form shows mixed results with 3 wins, while Millwall has struggled, recording only 1 win in their last 6 matches. With a confidence grade of C, the prediction could be affected if Millwall improves their performance or if Portsmouth fails to capitalize on their home advantage.
Portsmouth vs Millwall: model vs market
| Source | Portsmouth | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Portsmouth and Millwall expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Portsmouth / Millwall)
- 1.00 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Portsmouth / Millwall)
- 1.01 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Portsmouth vs Millwall score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Portsmouth goals. Columns: Millwall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Portsmouth vs Millwall goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Portsmouth vs Millwall
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Millwall | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Portsmouth or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Millwall) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Portsmouth win by 2+ | 23% | 4.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Portsmouth and Millwall recent form
Portsmouth
3W 2D 1L
Millwall
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Portsmouth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Millwall away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Portsmouth at home only, Millwall away only.
Portsmouth vs Millwall head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Portsmouth 2 · draws 0 · Millwall 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Millwall | 1-3 | Portsmouth | England Championship |
| 2025-11-22 | Portsmouth | 3-1 | Millwall | England Championship |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sheffield Utd v Derby — match page 2026-10-24
- Charlton vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford — match page 2026-10-24
- Cardiff vs Birmingham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- West Ham vs Southampton 2026-10-24
- Preston v West Brom — match page 2026-10-24
- Blackburn vs Wrexham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- QPR vs Swansea 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Portsmouth, previous: Wolverhampton Wanderers – Portsmouth, 2026-10-20
- Millwall, previous: Millwall vs Lincoln: odds and pick