Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth preview
Wolverhampton Wanderers face Portsmouth with a 43% chance of winning, while Portsmouth sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Wolverhampton's expected goals are 1.59 compared to Portsmouth's 1.28, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
However, factors like recent form could influence the outcome. Wolverhampton has recorded two losses in their last five matches, while Portsmouth has won two of their last five. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 55%, and both teams to score is at 59%, suggesting a potentially high-scoring match.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth: model vs market
| Source | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Draw | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Edge | -16% | +6% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.17.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wolverhampton Wanderers, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1.52 | 1.52 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.00 |
| Portsmouth | 5.50 | 5.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Portsmouth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Portsmouth)
- 1.09 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Portsmouth)
- 0.97 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Columns: Portsmouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Portsmouth | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Portsmouth) | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win by 2+ | 24% | 4.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Portsmouth recent form
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3W 0D 3L
Portsmouth
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wolverhampton Wanderers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Portsmouth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wolverhampton Wanderers at home only, Portsmouth away only.
Before and after this match
- Wolverhampton Wanderers, previous: Burnley – Wolverhampton Wanderers, 2026-10-16
- Wolverhampton Wanderers, next: Wolverhampton Wanderers – Watford, 2026-10-24
- Portsmouth, previous: Norwich v Portsmouth analysis
- Portsmouth, next: Portsmouth vs Millwall prediction