Updated

England Championship · Matchday 11

Norwich vs Portsmouth

· Carrow Road, Norwich· Referee Gavin Ward

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Norwich to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NorwichDrawPortsmouth

Norwich vs Portsmouth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNorwichDrawPortsmouth
Model36%23%40%
Market52%25%23%
Published48%25%27%
Edge-16%-2%+17%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Norwich vs Portsmouth odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Norwich, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.73Now 1.83 +0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Norwich1.731.83+0.09
Draw3.833.75-0.08
Portsmouth4.494.09-0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Norwich and Portsmouth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77Norwich
1.88Portsmouth
Total expected goals
3.66
Attack rating (Norwich / Portsmouth)
1.14 / 1.03
Defence rating (Norwich / Portsmouth)
1.49 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Norwich vs Portsmouth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 4.0% 4.6% 2.9% 2.1% 1 3.7% 9.5% 8.1% 5.1% 3.7% 2 4.1% 7.7% 7.2% 4.5% 3.3% 3 2.4% 4.5% 4.3% 2.7% 1.9% 4+ 1.6% 3.0% 2.8% 1.8% 1.3%

Rows: Norwich goals. Columns: Portsmouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Norwich vs Portsmouth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Norwich vs Portsmouth

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Norwich48%2.09
Draw25%4.04
Portsmouth27%3.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.42
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.40
No29%3.48
Double chance1X (Norwich or draw)73%1.38
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Portsmouth)52%1.92
Handicap -1Norwich win by 2+19%5.23
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Norwich and Portsmouth recent form

Norwich 1W 0D 5L
Portsmouth 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Norwich at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-3
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Portsmouth away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Norwich at home only, Portsmouth away only.

Injuries & availability

Norwich absences

  • A. Ahmed knee injury
  • A. Crnac rest
  • K. Fisher health problems
  • K. McLean injury
  • M. Topic knee injury
  • M. Toure shoulder injury
  • P. A. Diallo injury
  • V. Kovacevic concussion

Portsmouth absences

  • B. Arthur back injury
  • C. Ogilvie knee injury
  • C. Shaughnessy injury
  • F. Umeh hamstring injury
  • J. Murphy groin injury
  • K. Anderson overload
  • L. Brooke-Smith ankle injury
  • M. Kosznovszky knee injury
  • T. Waddingham ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Norwich lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 32 D. Grimshaw
  2. 14 B. Chrisene
  3. 33 J. Córdoba
  4. 15 Ruairi McConville
  5. 3 J. Stacey
  6. 7 P. Mattsson
  7. 16 Jacob Wright
  8. 29 O. Schwartau
  9. 20 A. Ben Slimane
  10. 11 A. Brooks
  11. 24 J. Makama

Bench: H. Darling, L. Mahovo, D. Yongwa, P. Maghoma, S. Field, M. Kvistgaarden, K. Fisher, C. Ansen, E. Mundle-Smith

Portsmouth lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Schmid
  2. 16 J. Meghoma
  3. 55 M. Dia
  4. 5 R. Poole
  5. 22 Z. Swanson
  6. 37 I. Mohamed
  7. 7 M. Pack
  8. 25 R. Kavuma McQueen
  9. 10 A. Segecic
  10. 11 A. Kamara
  11. 29 M. Milovanović

Bench: C. Bishop, T. Shade, R. Shein, T. Devlin, O. Bailey, B. Killip, D. Bielica, E. Kenny, E. Adams

Norwich vs Portsmouth head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Norwich 1 · draws 2 · Portsmouth 2.

NorwichDrawsPortsmouth
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-03Norwich1-1PortsmouthEngland Championship
2025-08-16Portsmouth1-2NorwichEngland Championship
2025-04-18Norwich3-5PortsmouthChampionship
2024-12-10Portsmouth0-0NorwichChampionship
2019-01-05Norwich0-1PortsmouthFA Cup

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match