Middlesbrough vs Cardiff: model vs market
| Source | Middlesbrough | Draw | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 22% | 33% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 21% | 22% |
| Edge | -18% | +2% | +15% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Middlesbrough, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1.47 | 1.50 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.67 | -0.03 |
| Cardiff | 5.45 | 5.16 | -0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Middlesbrough and Cardiff expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (Middlesbrough / Cardiff)
- 1.29 / 1.36
- Defence rating (Middlesbrough / Cardiff)
- 1.09 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Middlesbrough goals. Columns: Cardiff goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 58% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.87 | |
| Cardiff | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Middlesbrough or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Cardiff) | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win by 2+ | 26% | 3.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Middlesbrough and Cardiff recent form
Middlesbrough
3W 2D 1L
Cardiff
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Middlesbrough at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cardiff away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Middlesbrough at home only, Cardiff away only.
Injuries & availability
Middlesbrough absences
-
A. Jones
calf injury
- D. Strelec injury
- R. Pukstas injury
Cardiff absences
-
C. Chambers
knee injury
-
D. Lawlor
hamstring injury
-
R. Colwill
ankle injury
- Y. Salech inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Middlesbrough lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 R. Vítek
- 30 Neto Borges
- 4 A. Phillips
- 12 L. Ayling
- 2 C. Brittain
- 10 A. Morris
- 29 A. Malanda
- 9 T. Conway
- 8 R. McGree
- 11 A. Cozier-Duberry
- 22 K. Joseph
Bench: S. Byram, S. Berhalter, W. Lankshear, M. Peart-Harris, J. Sarmiento, M. Arfsten, C. Barron, Leo Castledine, S. Brynn
Cardiff lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 1 N. Trott
- 3 J. Bagan
- 5 K. Bielik
- 4 G. Osho
- 44 R. Kpakio
- 18 A. Robertson
- 16 C. Willock
- 27 J. Colwill
- 45 Cian Ashford
- 11 O. Tanner
- 8 J. Moylan
Bench: W. Fish, D. Turnbull, C. Scanlon, H. Tyrer, R. Tankiewicz, I. Davies, P. Moreno, T. Perrett
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Middlesbrough 6 · draws 3 · Cardiff 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-04 | Middlesbrough | 1-1 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 2024-08-31 | Cardiff | 0-2 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2024-04-27 | Cardiff | 1-4 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2023-10-03 | Middlesbrough | 2-0 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 2023-02-11 | Cardiff | 1-3 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2022-09-13 | Middlesbrough | 2-3 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 2022-04-27 | Middlesbrough | 2-0 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 2021-10-23 | Cardiff | 0-2 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2021-02-27 | Middlesbrough | 1-1 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 2020-10-24 | Cardiff | 1-1 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers 2026-10-16
- Watford v Charlton — match page 2026-10-17
- Millwall vs Lincoln — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Southampton v Bolton — match page 2026-10-17
- Birmingham vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd 2026-10-17
- West Brom v Blackburn — match page 2026-10-17
- Derby vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Middlesbrough, previous: Stoke City vs Middlesbrough prediction
- Middlesbrough, next: Bolton – Middlesbrough, 2026-10-23
- Cardiff, previous: Cardiff v Watford analysis
- Cardiff, next: Cardiff v Birmingham analysis