Updated

England Championship · Matchday 11

Watford vs Charlton

· Vicarage Road, Watford· Referee Thomas Bramall

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Charlton to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
WatfordDrawCharlton

Watford vs Charlton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWatfordDrawCharlton
Model23%26%51%
Market38%28%34%
Published34%27%39%
Edge-15%-2%+17%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.09.
  • The market prices Charlton below the model: +17.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Watford vs Charlton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Charlton, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 3.46Now 2.73 -0.73
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Watford2.042.48+0.44
Draw3.353.34-0.01
Charlton3.462.73-0.73

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Watford and Charlton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.09Watford
1.73Charlton
Total expected goals
2.83
Attack rating (Watford / Charlton)
0.65 / 0.86
Defence rating (Watford / Charlton)
1.65 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Watford vs Charlton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.0% 9.2% 8.9% 5.2% 3.3% 1 5.3% 12.3% 9.7% 5.6% 3.6% 2 3.5% 6.1% 5.3% 3.1% 2.0% 3 1.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 4+ 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Charlton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Watford vs Charlton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Watford vs Charlton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Watford34%2.94
Draw27%3.64
Charlton39%2.59
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.86
Under 2.546%2.16
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.26
Double chance1X (Watford or draw)61%1.63
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Charlton)66%1.51
Handicap -1Charlton win by 2+29%3.47
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Watford and Charlton recent form

Watford 1W 0D 5L
Charlton 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Watford at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

Charlton away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Watford at home only, Charlton away only.

Injuries & availability

Watford absences

  • E. Bove knee injury
  • J. Ngakia thigh injury
  • K. Baah knock
  • M. Antonio inactive
  • T. Akomeah lacking match fitness

Charlton absences

  • C. Sichenje knee injury
  • M. Godden muscle injury
  • N. Chalobah muscle injury
  • R. Apter knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Watford lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 F. Ravaglia
  2. 3 S. Coulibaly
  3. 4 K. Keben
  4. 6 M. Pollock
  5. 15 K. Diatta
  6. 5 H. Kyprianou
  7. 39 E. Kayembe
  8. 17 Iker Bravo
  9. 10 M. Boadu
  10. 16 M. Bola
  11. 9 L. Kjerrumgaard

Bench: O. Maamma, R. Vata, M. Doumbia, Amin Nabizada, M. Payero, D. Bachmann, Branimir Mlačić, J. Zemura, S. Mavididi

Charlton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 A. Okonkwo
  2. 18 I. Mesík
  3. 12 Billy Dawson Koumetio
  4. 5 L. Jones
  5. 20 D. McNamara
  6. 34 O. Skipp
  7. 6 C. Coventry
  8. 7 T. Campbell
  9. 2 K. Ramsay
  10. 9 K. Ahearne-Grant
  11. 11 M. Leaburn

Bench: H. Knibbs, S. Carey, A. Bell, M. Alli, C. Kelman, W. Mannion, A. Mwamba, Micah Mbick, Tyler Bindon

Watford vs Charlton head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Watford 2 · draws 2 · Charlton 4.

WatfordDrawsCharlton
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-06Watford1-1CharltonEngland Championship
2025-08-09Charlton1-0WatfordEngland Championship
2015-01-17Watford5-0CharltonChampionship
2014-09-13Charlton1-0WatfordChampionship
2014-04-29Charlton3-1WatfordChampionship
2013-09-14Watford1-1CharltonChampionship
2013-01-01Watford3-4CharltonChampionship
2012-10-02Charlton1-2WatfordChampionship

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match