Burnley vs Charlton: model vs market
| Source | Burnley | Draw | Charlton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 29% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Burnley and Charlton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Burnley / Charlton)
- 0.79 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Burnley / Charlton)
- 1.24 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Burnley vs Charlton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Burnley goals. Columns: Charlton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Burnley vs Charlton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Burnley vs Charlton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 39% | 2.54 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Charlton | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Burnley or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Charlton) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Burnley win by 2+ | 19% | 5.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Burnley and Charlton recent form
Burnley
0W 3D 3L
Charlton
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burnley at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Burnley at home only, Charlton away only.
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- Wrexham vs West Brom 2026-10-13
- Birmingham vs Preston 2026-10-13
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