Updated

England Championship · Matchday 10

Burnley vs Charlton

· Turf Moor, Burnley· Referee Anthony Backhouse

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Burnley to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BurnleyDrawCharlton

Burnley vs Charlton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBurnleyDrawCharlton
Model50%27%23%
Market58%24%18%
Published56%25%19%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Burnley vs Charlton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Burnley, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 1.71Now 1.63 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Burnley1.711.63-0.08
Draw3.753.88+0.12
Charlton4.575.22+0.65

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Burnley and Charlton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.67Burnley
1.08Charlton
Total expected goals
2.75
Attack rating (Burnley / Charlton)
1.03 / 0.79
Defence rating (Burnley / Charlton)
1.13 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Burnley vs Charlton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 5.7% 3.7% 1.3% 0.5% 1 9.5% 12.7% 6.2% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.9% 9.6% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6% 3 4.9% 5.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 3.0% 3.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Burnley goals. Columns: Charlton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Burnley vs Charlton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Burnley vs Charlton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Burnley56%1.79
Draw25%4.02
Charlton19%5.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.93
Under 2.548%2.08
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.82
No45%2.21
Double chance1X (Burnley or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Charlton)44%2.26
Handicap -1Burnley win by 2+27%3.65
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Burnley and Charlton recent form

Burnley 1W 3D 2L
Charlton 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Burnley at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Charlton away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Burnley at home only, Charlton away only.

Injuries & availability

Burnley absences

  • A. Barnes muscle injury
  • A. Ramsey hamstring injury
  • B. Humphreys muscle injury
  • E. Agyei muscle injury
  • H. Mejbri hamstring injury
  • J. Banel muscle injury
  • J. Beyer hamstring injury
  • J. Cullen knee injury
  • M. Obafemi inactive
  • M. Tresor Ndayishimiye inactive
  • S. Sambo inactive
  • U. Raghouber inactive
  • Z. Amdouni inactive

Charlton absences

  • C. Sichenje knee injury
  • M. Godden muscle injury
  • N. Chalobah muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Burnley lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 37 G. Coudert
  2. 23 Lucas Pires
  3. 44 Igor
  4. 15 A. Ahmedhodžić
  5. 2 K. Walker
  6. 5 R. Hatate
  7. 3 Max Alleyne
  8. 7 J. Bruun Larsen
  9. 29 J. Laurent
  10. 19 L. Ramazani
  11. 9 J. Vardy

Bench: M. Weiß, U. Raghouber, M. Edwards, C. Roberts, A. Hountondji, H. Ekdal, O. Sonne, A. Broja, L. Castell

Charlton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 A. Okonkwo
  2. 17 A. Bell
  3. 12 Billy Dawson Koumetio
  4. 5 L. Jones
  5. 20 D. McNamara
  6. 34 O. Skipp
  7. 6 C. Coventry
  8. 7 T. Campbell
  9. 2 K. Ramsay
  10. 9 K. Ahearne-Grant
  11. 11 M. Leaburn

Bench: H. Knibbs, S. Carey, I. Mesík, M. Alli, C. Kelman, W. Mannion, A. Mwamba, Micah Mbick, Tyler Bindon

Burnley vs Charlton head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Burnley 5 · draws 0 · Charlton 1.

BurnleyDrawsCharlton
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2016-05-07Charlton0-3BurnleyChampionship
2015-12-19Burnley4-0CharltonChampionship
2014-03-22Charlton0-3BurnleyChampionship
2013-09-28Burnley3-0CharltonChampionship
2013-03-02Charlton0-1BurnleyChampionship
2012-11-17Burnley0-1CharltonChampionship

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match