Wrexham vs West Brom: model vs market
| Source | Wrexham | Draw | West Brom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 1.01.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Wrexham and West Brom expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Wrexham / West Brom)
- 0.87 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Wrexham / West Brom)
- 1.20 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wrexham vs West Brom score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wrexham goals. Columns: West Brom goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wrexham vs West Brom goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wrexham vs West Brom
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wrexham | 25% | 3.95 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| West Brom | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wrexham or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or West Brom) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | West Brom win by 2+ | 23% | 4.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wrexham and West Brom recent form
Wrexham
2W 2D 2L
West Brom
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wrexham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
West Brom away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wrexham at home only, West Brom away only.
Wrexham vs West Brom head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Wrexham 0 · draws 1 · West Brom 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | West Brom | 2-2 | Wrexham | England Championship |
| 2025-08-16 | Wrexham | 2-3 | West Brom | England Championship |
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- Birmingham vs Preston 2026-10-13
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