Wrexham vs Preston Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Wrexham vs Preston: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Wrexham	Draw	Preston
Model	56%	25%	19%
Market	56%	24%	20%
Published	56%	25%	19%
Edge	0%	+1%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.96.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wrexham vs Preston odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Wrexham, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-14.

Opened 1.70Now 1.67 -0.03

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Wrexham	1.70	1.67	-0.03
Draw	3.80	3.84	+0.04
Preston	4.60	4.78	+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wrexham and Preston expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.81Wrexham

0.96Preston

Total expected goals: 2.77
Attack rating (Wrexham / Preston): 0.87 / 0.70
Defence rating (Wrexham / Preston): 1.13 / 1.45

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wrexham vs Preston score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 4.9% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3% 1 10.2% 12.0% 5.2% 1.7% 0.5% 2 10.2% 9.9% 4.7% 1.5% 0.5% 3 6.2% 5.9% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 4.2% 4.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Wrexham goals. Columns: Preston goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wrexham vs Preston goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 53%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wrexham vs Preston

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Wrexham	56%	1.79
	Draw	25%	4.07
	Preston	19%	5.15
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.91
	Under 2.5	48%	2.10
Both teams to score	Yes	53%	1.89
	No	47%	2.12
Double chance	1X (Wrexham or draw)	81%	1.24
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Preston)	44%	2.27
Handicap -1	Wrexham win by 2+	33%	3.05
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Wrexham and Preston recent form

Wrexham 1W 3D 2L

Preston 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wrexham at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-2-2
Win rate: 20%
Goals for / match: 1.20
Goals against / match: 1.40
Clean sheets: 0 of 5

They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Preston away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-4
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.80
Goals against / match: 2.20
Clean sheets: 0 of 5

They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Wrexham at home only, Preston away only.

Injuries & availability

Wrexham absences

B. Sheaf injury
G. Thomason thigh injury
J. Windass ankle injury
L. Cacace calf injury
M. Cleworth muscle injury
M. James back injury
N. Broadhead thigh injury
S. Revan hamstring injury

Preston absences

A. McCann hamstring injury
B. Potts ankle injury
C. Wiley inactive
H. Clarke knee injury
J. Kenny inactive
L. Gibbs muscle injury
S. Mills suspended
T. Carroll ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Wrexham lineup · 3-4-2-1

22 A. Patterson
2 C. Doyle
5 D. Hyam
6 J. Worrall
3 J. Ekomié
8 B. Whiteman
37 M. James
30 Daniel Edward Peter Imray
17 C. O'Hare
28 S. Smith
19 K. Moore

Bench: B. Cadamarteri, I. Kaboré, G. Dobson, O. Rathbone, D. Ward, Z. Vyner, L. O'Brien, A. James, R. Longman

Preston lineup · 3-4-1-2

1 D. Iversen
16 A. Hughes
14 J. Storey
24 O. Offiah
3 A. Vukčević
15 J. Thompson
27 L. Leroy
6 L. Lindsay
7 A. Devine
38 J. Kenny
10 C. Lang

Bench: Pol Valentín, J. Erabi, T. Small, L. Nicholls, A. Moran, Ed Nolan, D. Burgzorg, B. Potts

Wrexham vs Preston head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Wrexham 2 · draws 1 · Preston 0.

67% 33% 0%

WrexhamDrawsPreston

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2025-12-29	Wrexham	2-1	Preston	England Championship
2025-12-06	Preston	1-1	Wrexham	England Championship
2025-08-26	Preston	2-3	Wrexham	League Cup

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

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Watford v Charlton — match page 2026-10-17
Millwall vs Lincoln — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff 2026-10-17
Southampton v Bolton — match page 2026-10-17
Birmingham vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd 2026-10-17
West Brom v Blackburn — match page 2026-10-17

Before and after this match

Wrexham, previous: Wrexham vs West Brom: odds and pick
Wrexham, next: Blackburn – Wrexham, 2026-10-24
Preston, previous: Birmingham vs Preston prediction
Preston, next: Preston vs West Brom prediction