QPR vs Derby preview
In the fixture between QPR and Derby, the 1X2 probabilities show QPR at 48%, while Derby stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 12% chance. QPR has an expected goals figure of 1.45 compared to Derby's 0.91, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent form suggests potential pitfalls. QPR has drawn three of its last five matches, while Derby has lost four of its last six. The probability for Over 2.5 goals is 42%, and both teams to score is at 47%. These numbers indicate that while QPR is favored, the match could still end in an unexpected result.
QPR vs Derby: model vs market
| Source | QPR | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.90.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
QPR and Derby expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.35
- Attack rating (QPR / Derby)
- 0.85 / 0.82
- Defence rating (QPR / Derby)
- 0.91 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
QPR vs Derby score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: QPR goals. Columns: Derby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
QPR vs Derby goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for QPR vs Derby
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Derby | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (QPR or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Derby) | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | QPR win by 2+ | 25% | 4.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
QPR and Derby recent form
QPR
1W 4D 1L
Derby
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
QPR at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Derby away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: QPR at home only, Derby away only.
QPR vs Derby head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: QPR 0 · draws 0 · Derby 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | QPR | 2-3 | Derby | England Championship |
| 2025-10-25 | Derby | 1-0 | QPR | England Championship |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton 2026-10-13
- Cardiff v Watford — match page 2026-10-13
- Burnley vs Charlton — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Birmingham vs Preston 2026-10-13
- Stoke City v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-10-13
- Norwich vs Southampton — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd — match page 2026-10-14
- Lincoln vs West Ham — team news & stats 2026-10-14
Before and after this match
- QPR, previous: West Ham – QPR, 2026-10-09
- Derby, previous: Derby v Wrexham analysis