Updated

England Championship · Matchday 11

Swansea vs West Ham

· Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea· Referee Josh Smith

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was West Ham to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SwanseaDrawWest Ham

Swansea vs West Ham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSwanseaDrawWest Ham
Model35%25%40%
Market32%26%41%
Published33%26%41%
Edge+2%-1%-1%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Swansea vs West Ham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on West Ham, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-14.

Opened 2.39Now 2.25 -0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Swansea2.642.90+0.26
Draw3.623.54-0.08
West Ham2.392.25-0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Swansea and West Ham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.56Swansea
1.70West Ham
Total expected goals
3.26
Attack rating (Swansea / West Ham)
1.14 / 1.96
Defence rating (Swansea / West Ham)
0.71 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Swansea vs West Ham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 5.5% 5.5% 3.1% 1.9% 1 5.0% 11.2% 8.6% 4.9% 3.0% 2 4.7% 8.0% 6.8% 3.8% 2.4% 3 2.4% 4.2% 3.5% 2.0% 1.2% 4+ 1.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.7%

Rows: Swansea goals. Columns: West Ham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Swansea vs West Ham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Swansea vs West Ham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Swansea33%3.05
Draw26%3.84
West Ham41%2.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.72
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.52
No34%2.91
Double chance1X (Swansea or draw)59%1.70
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or West Ham)67%1.49
Handicap -1West Ham win by 2+21%4.70
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Swansea and West Ham recent form

Swansea 4W 1D 1L
West Ham 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Swansea at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-0
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
0.40
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

West Ham away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-0
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.80
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Swansea at home only, West Ham away only.

Injuries & availability

Swansea absences

  • C. Burgess achilles tendon injury
  • F. Lissah yellow cards
  • J. Key muscle injury
  • S. Eustaquio shoulder injury

West Ham absences

  • K. Lamadrid injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Swansea lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 22 L. Vigouroux
  2. 14 J. Tymon
  3. 23 S. Welsh
  4. 5 B. Cabango
  5. 35 Ronald
  6. 6 M. Stamenić
  7. 4 J. Fulton
  8. 17 Gonçalo Franco
  9. 30 Joseph Okopu
  10. 33 A. Idah
  11. 49 M. Yeo

Bench: A. Fisher, J. Seelt, M. Widell, E. Just, Z. Vipotnik, Eom Ji-Sung, S. Eustáquio, C. Heywood

West Ham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Hermansen
  2. 5 Morato
  3. 3 M. Kilman
  4. 15 K. Mavropanos
  5. 34 J. Veltman
  6. 7 A. Engels
  7. 17 M. Kanté
  8. 10 M. Solomon
  9. 14 D. Mukasa
  10. 20 J. Bowen
  11. 19 Pablo

Bench: K. Walker-Peters, J. Piroe, V. Castellanos, A. Areola, T. Souček, O. Scarles, E. Austbö, A. Golambeckis, L. Orford

Swansea vs West Ham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Swansea 2 · draws 3 · West Ham 5.

SwanseaDrawsWest Ham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2018-03-03Swansea4-1West HamPremier League
2017-09-30West Ham1-0SwanseaPremier League
2017-04-08West Ham1-0SwanseaPremier League
2016-12-26Swansea1-4West HamPremier League
2016-05-07West Ham1-4SwanseaPremier League
2015-12-20Swansea0-0West HamPremier League
2015-01-10Swansea1-1West HamPremier League
2014-12-07West Ham3-1SwanseaPremier League
2014-02-01West Ham2-0SwanseaPremier League
2013-10-27Swansea0-0West HamPremier League

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match