Leicester vs Wigan preview
Leicester faces Wigan with a 58% probability of winning, while Wigan sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 13%. Leicester's expected goals stand at 1.70, compared to Wigan's 0.79.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. Both teams to score has a probability of 46%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 45%. If Wigan improves their scoring or Leicester struggles defensively, the predicted outcome could change.
Leicester vs Wigan: model vs market
| Source | Leicester | Draw | Wigan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Published | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Edge | 0% | +3% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.59, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
Leicester and Wigan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Leicester / Wigan)
- 1.21 / 0.63
- Defence rating (Leicester / Wigan)
- 1.07 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leicester vs Wigan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leicester goals. Columns: Wigan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leicester vs Wigan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leicester vs Wigan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leicester | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Wigan | 18% | 5.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leicester or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Wigan) | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leicester win by 2+ | 33% | 3.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leicester and Wigan recent form
Leicester
3W 1D 2L
Wigan
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leicester at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wigan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leicester at home only, Wigan away only.
Before and after this match
- Leicester, previous: Luton vs Leicester prediction
- Leicester, next: Oxford City – Leicester, 2026-11-07
- Wigan, previous: Huddersfield vs Wigan: odds and pick
- Wigan, next: Boreham Wood vs Wigan: odds and pick