Leicester vs Stevenage preview
Leicester faces Stevenage with a 42% chance of winning compared to Stevenage's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 9% probability. Leicester has an expected goals figure of 1.45, while Stevenage stands at 1.19.
Both teams to score has a 54% chance, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 49%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions. If Leicester's recent form of L-W-W-L-D-W continues to falter, or if Stevenage's L-W-L-W-L-W run improves, the expected outcomes could change significantly.
Leicester vs Stevenage: model vs market
| Source | Leicester | Draw | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Leicester vs Stevenage odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Leicester, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Stevenage | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Leicester and Stevenage expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Leicester / Stevenage)
- 1.15 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Leicester / Stevenage)
- 1.10 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leicester vs Stevenage score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leicester goals. Columns: Stevenage goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leicester vs Stevenage goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leicester vs Stevenage
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leicester | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Stevenage | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leicester or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Stevenage) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leicester win by 2+ | 21% | 4.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leicester and Stevenage recent form
Leicester
3W 1D 2L
Stevenage
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leicester at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stevenage away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leicester at home only, Stevenage away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Bradford vs Huddersfield 2026-10-31
- Wigan v Bromley — match page 2026-10-31
- Barnsley vs Oxford United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster 2026-10-31
- Peterborough v Luton — match page 2026-10-31
- Wycombe vs Burton Albion — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Mansfield Town vs Notts County 2026-10-31
- Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Leicester, previous: Leicester vs Wigan prediction
- Leicester, next: Oxford City – Leicester, 2026-11-06
- Stevenage, previous: Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons: odds and pick
- Stevenage, next: Oxford United v Stevenage analysis