Peterborough vs Luton preview
In the upcoming fixture between Peterborough and Luton, the 1X2 probabilities show Luton at 44%, Peterborough at 32%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which has a 9% chance of occurring. Both teams are expected to score, with a 69% probability for "both teams to score" and a 68% chance for "Over 2.5 goals."
Peterborough's recent form includes 2 draws and 3 losses, while Luton has 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. The expected goals suggest Peterborough will score 1.62 and Luton 1.90. While the numbers favor Luton, unexpected events like a sudden change in form or injuries could influence the match outcome.
Peterborough vs Luton: model vs market
| Source | Peterborough | Draw | Luton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Published | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Peterborough vs Luton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Luton, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| Luton | 1.85 | 1.85 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Peterborough and Luton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.52
- Attack rating (Peterborough / Luton)
- 1.00 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Peterborough / Luton)
- 1.26 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Peterborough vs Luton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Peterborough goals. Columns: Luton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Peterborough vs Luton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Peterborough vs Luton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Peterborough | 28% | 3.58 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Luton | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Peterborough or draw) | 52% | 1.94 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Luton) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Luton win by 2+ | 25% | 4.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Peterborough and Luton recent form
Peterborough
1W 2D 3L
Luton
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Peterborough at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Luton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Peterborough at home only, Luton away only.
Peterborough vs Luton head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Peterborough 0 · draws 0 · Luton 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Luton | 2-1 | Peterborough | League One |
| 2025-08-09 | Peterborough | 0-2 | Luton | League One |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Bradford vs Huddersfield 2026-10-31
- Leicester vs Stevenage 2026-10-31
- Wigan v Bromley — match page 2026-10-31
- Barnsley vs Oxford United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster 2026-10-31
- Wycombe vs Burton Albion — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Mansfield Town vs Notts County 2026-10-31
- Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Peterborough, previous: Bradford vs Peterborough prediction
- Peterborough, next: Peterborough v Reading analysis
- Luton, previous: Luton vs Doncaster prediction
- Luton, next: Luton vs Forest Green prediction