Wycombe vs Burton Albion preview
In the League One fixture between Wycombe and Burton Albion, the 1X2 probabilities show Wycombe at 45%, while Burton Albion sits at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Wycombe has an expected goals figure of 1.86 compared to Burton Albion's 1.52, indicating a slight edge in offensive potential.
Both teams to score stands at 67%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 66%. However, Wycombe's recent form includes two draws and a loss in their last five matches, which could affect their performance. Burton Albion, on the other hand, has won two of their last five. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Wycombe vs Burton Albion: model vs market
| Source | Wycombe | Draw | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Published | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.52.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Wycombe vs Burton Albion odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wycombe, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wycombe | 1.57 | 1.57 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.00 |
| Burton Albion | 5.11 | 5.11 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wycombe and Burton Albion expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.38
- Attack rating (Wycombe / Burton Albion)
- 1.19 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Wycombe / Burton Albion)
- 1.31 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wycombe vs Burton Albion score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wycombe goals. Columns: Burton Albion goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wycombe vs Burton Albion goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wycombe vs Burton Albion
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wycombe | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Burton Albion | 21% | 4.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wycombe or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Burton Albion) | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wycombe win by 2+ | 25% | 3.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wycombe and Burton Albion recent form
Wycombe
2W 3D 1L
Burton Albion
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wycombe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burton Albion away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wycombe at home only, Burton Albion away only.
Wycombe vs Burton Albion head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Wycombe 1 · draws 1 · Burton Albion 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Wycombe | 3-0 | Burton Albion | League One |
| 2025-12-13 | Burton Albion | 0-0 | Wycombe | League One |
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Before and after this match
- Wycombe, previous: AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe: odds and pick
- Wycombe, next: Accrington ST vs Wycombe prediction
- Burton Albion, previous: Burton Albion v Leyton Orient analysis
- Burton Albion, next: Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds: odds and pick