Plymouth vs Reading preview
Plymouth faces Reading with a 39% chance of winning compared to Reading's 36%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% probability. Plymouth's expected goals stand at 1.39, while Reading has a higher expected goals figure of 1.80.
Both teams to score has a 64% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 62%. Recent form shows Plymouth with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Reading has 3 wins in their last 6. Plymouth has not won against Reading in their last 2 meetings, with 1 draw and 1 loss. This could affect Plymouth's performance despite their home advantage.
Plymouth vs Reading: model vs market
| Source | Plymouth | Draw | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Market | 42% | 25% | 32% |
| Published | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Plymouth vs Reading odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Plymouth, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 2.20 | 2.20 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Reading | 2.88 | 2.88 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Plymouth and Reading expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Plymouth / Reading)
- 1.17 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Plymouth / Reading)
- 1.15 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Plymouth vs Reading score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Plymouth goals. Columns: Reading goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Plymouth vs Reading goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Plymouth vs Reading
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Reading | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Plymouth or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Reading) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Plymouth win by 2+ | 13% | 7.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Plymouth and Reading recent form
Plymouth
3W 0D 3L
Reading
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Plymouth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Reading away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Plymouth at home only, Reading away only.
Plymouth vs Reading head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Plymouth 0 · draws 1 · Reading 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Reading | 2-2 | Plymouth | League One |
| 2025-12-26 | Plymouth | 1-4 | Reading | League One |
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Before and after this match
- Plymouth, previous: Cambridge United vs Plymouth prediction
- Plymouth, next: Plymouth vs Alvechurch: odds and pick
- Reading, previous: Reading – Barnsley, 2026-10-24
- Reading, next: Peterborough v Reading analysis