Barnet vs York: model vs market
| Source | Barnet | Draw | York |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 1.76.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Barnet and York expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.29
- Attack rating (Barnet / York)
- 1.72 / 1.36
- Defence rating (Barnet / York)
- 1.11 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barnet vs York score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barnet goals. Columns: York goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barnet vs York goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barnet vs York
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.00 | |
| York | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barnet or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or York) | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win by 2+ | 35% | 2.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Barnet and York recent form
Barnet
3W 3D 0L
York
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barnet at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Barnet at home only, York away only.
Barnet vs York head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Barnet 5 · draws 1 · York 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-18 | Barnet | 3-1 | York | National League |
| 2024-10-22 | York | 3-1 | Barnet | National League |
| 2024-02-24 | Barnet | 2-0 | York | National League |
| 2023-09-26 | York | 2-4 | Barnet | National League |
| 2023-04-03 | York | 1-0 | Barnet | National League |
| 2022-10-01 | Barnet | 0-5 | York | National League |
| 2016-03-12 | York | 1-1 | Barnet | League Two |
| 2015-10-17 | Barnet | 3-1 | York | League Two |
| 2013-02-16 | York | 1-2 | Barnet | League Two |
| 2012-08-25 | Barnet | 1-3 | York | League Two |
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