Barnet vs York: model vs market
| Source | Barnet | Draw | York |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Barnet vs York odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barnet, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 2.22 | 2.01 | -0.21 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.81 | +0.17 |
| York | 2.90 | 3.20 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Barnet and York expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.36
- Attack rating (Barnet / York)
- 1.49 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Barnet / York)
- 1.12 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barnet vs York score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barnet goals. Columns: York goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barnet vs York goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barnet vs York
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.00 | |
| York | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barnet or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or York) | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win by 2+ | 23% | 4.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Barnet and York recent form
Barnet
4W 1D 1L
York
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barnet at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Barnet at home only, York away only.
Barnet vs York head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Barnet 5 · draws 1 · York 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-18 | Barnet | 3-1 | York | National League |
| 2024-10-22 | York | 3-1 | Barnet | National League |
| 2024-02-24 | Barnet | 2-0 | York | National League |
| 2023-09-26 | York | 2-4 | Barnet | National League |
| 2023-04-03 | York | 1-0 | Barnet | National League |
| 2022-10-01 | Barnet | 0-5 | York | National League |
| 2016-03-12 | York | 1-1 | Barnet | League Two |
| 2015-10-17 | Barnet | 3-1 | York | League Two |
| 2013-02-16 | York | 1-2 | Barnet | League Two |
| 2012-08-25 | Barnet | 1-3 | York | League Two |
Before and after this match
- Barnet, previous: Barnet – Oldham, 2026-10-24
- Barnet, next: Crewe – Barnet, 2026-10-31
- York, previous: York v Port Vale analysis
- York, next: Grimsby v York analysis