Crewe vs Barnet preview
In the League Two fixture between Crewe and Barnet, the 1X2 probabilities show Barnet at 49%, Crewe at 29%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a 71% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 72%.
Crewe's recent form includes two losses followed by three matches without defeat, while Barnet has won four of their last six games. The expected goals are 1.60 for Crewe and 2.10 for Barnet. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions. If Crewe can improve their scoring, it could challenge the expected outcome.
Crewe vs Barnet: model vs market
| Source | Crewe | Draw | Barnet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 23% | 49% |
| Market | 31% | 26% | 44% |
| Published | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.60.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Crewe vs Barnet odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barnet, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 3.03 | 3.01 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.58 | +0.00 |
| Barnet | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Crewe and Barnet expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Crewe / Barnet)
- 1.02 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Crewe / Barnet)
- 1.21 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Crewe vs Barnet score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Crewe goals. Columns: Barnet goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Crewe vs Barnet goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Crewe vs Barnet
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 30% | 3.32 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Barnet | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Crewe or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Barnet) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win by 2+ | 29% | 3.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Crewe and Barnet recent form
Crewe
3W 1D 2L
Barnet
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Crewe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Barnet away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Crewe at home only, Barnet away only.
Crewe vs Barnet head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Crewe 0 · draws 1 · Barnet 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Barnet | 1-1 | Crewe | League Two |
| 2025-09-13 | Crewe | 1-2 | Barnet | League Two |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Oldham vs Crawley Town 2026-10-31
- Shrewsbury v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-31
- Swindon Town vs Rotherham — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Accrington ST vs Northampton 2026-10-31
- Colchester v Walsall — match page 2026-10-31
- Tranmere vs Cheltenham 2026-10-31
- Salford City v Exeter City — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Crewe, previous: Chesterfield – Crewe, 2026-10-24
- Crewe, next: Crewe – AFC Wimbledon, 2026-11-07
- Barnet, previous: Barnet v York analysis
- Barnet, next: Barnet vs Tranmere: odds and pick