Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme: model vs market
| Source | Nõmme United | Draw | Kalju Nomme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nõmme United and Kalju Nomme expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.44
- Attack rating (Nõmme United / Kalju Nomme)
- 0.84 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Nõmme United / Kalju Nomme)
- 1.31 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nõmme United goals. Columns: Kalju Nomme goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nõmme United | 22% | 4.62 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Kalju Nomme | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nõmme United or draw) | 44% | 2.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Kalju Nomme) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kalju Nomme win by 2+ | 35% | 2.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nõmme United and Kalju Nomme recent form
Nõmme United
1W 0D 5L
Kalju Nomme
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nõmme United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-11
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalju Nomme away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-4
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nõmme United at home only, Kalju Nomme away only.
Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Nõmme United 1 · draws 2 · Kalju Nomme 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Kalju Nomme | 1-2 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-07-03 | Nõmme United | 1-3 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-22 | Kalju Nomme | 7-1 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-09-18 | Kalju Nomme | 3-0 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-07-19 | Nõmme United | 0-4 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-05-28 | Kalju Nomme | 1-1 | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-03-17 | Nõmme United | 0-0 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
Before and after this match
- Nõmme United, previous: Laagri v Nõmme United analysis
- Kalju Nomme, previous: Vaprus – Kalju Nomme, 2026-10-13