Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme: model vs market
| Source | Vaprus | Draw | Kalju Nomme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 23% | 52% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 23% | 52% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.35.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.38
- Attack rating (Vaprus / Kalju Nomme)
- 0.88 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Vaprus / Kalju Nomme)
- 1.24 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vaprus goals. Columns: Kalju Nomme goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 24% | 4.08 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Kalju Nomme | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vaprus or draw) | 48% | 2.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Kalju Nomme) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kalju Nomme win by 2+ | 31% | 3.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme recent form
Vaprus
2W 1D 3L
Kalju Nomme
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vaprus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-5
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalju Nomme away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-4
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vaprus at home only, Kalju Nomme away only.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Vaprus 3 · draws 1 · Kalju Nomme 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Kalju Nomme | 3-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-30 | Vaprus | 3-1 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-26 | Kalju Nomme | 1-2 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-05 | Kalju Nomme | 1-0 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-10 | Kalju Nomme | 1-2 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-06-27 | Vaprus | 2-2 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-03-01 | Vaprus | 0-3 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Laagri v Nõmme United — match page 2026-10-13