Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme: model vs market
| Source | Vaprus | Draw | Kalju Nomme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Market | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| Published | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.42.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kalju Nomme, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vaprus | 4.82 | 3.80 | -1.02 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 3.84 | -0.36 |
| Kalju Nomme | 1.55 | 1.68 | +0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Vaprus / Kalju Nomme)
- 0.94 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Vaprus / Kalju Nomme)
- 1.27 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vaprus goals. Columns: Kalju Nomme goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 25% | 4.01 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Kalju Nomme | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vaprus or draw) | 49% | 2.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Kalju Nomme) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kalju Nomme win by 2+ | 26% | 3.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme recent form
Vaprus
2W 1D 3L
Kalju Nomme
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vaprus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalju Nomme away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-4
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vaprus at home only, Kalju Nomme away only.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Vaprus 3 · draws 1 · Kalju Nomme 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Kalju Nomme | 3-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-05-30 | Vaprus | 3-1 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-26 | Kalju Nomme | 1-2 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-10-05 | Kalju Nomme | 1-0 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-10 | Kalju Nomme | 1-2 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-06-27 | Vaprus | 2-2 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-03-01 | Vaprus | 0-3 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-01-24 | Vaprus | 1-3 | Kalju Nomme | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-11-09 | Kalju Nomme | 2-1 | Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| 2024-09-15 | Vaprus | 0-4 | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Laagri v Nõmme United — match page 2026-10-13
- Trans Narva vs Kuressaare — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Paide vs Tammeka 2026-10-14
- Flora Tallinn v FC Levadia Tallinn — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Vaprus, next: Laagri vs Vaprus prediction
- Kalju Nomme, next: Nõmme United v Kalju Nomme analysis