Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn preview
Flora Tallinn faces FC Levadia Tallinn with 10% chances for a home win and 74% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.04 for Flora Tallinn and 2.86 for FC Levadia Tallinn.
While Over 2.5 goals has a high probability of 75%, the match could still end with fewer goals if Flora Tallinn's defense performs better than expected. Both teams to score is at 61%, indicating a reasonable chance for both sides to find the net, but Flora's recent form shows a mix of results that could impact their performance.
Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn: model vs market
| Source | Flora Tallinn | Draw | FC Levadia Tallinn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 15% | 74% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 10% | 15% | 74% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.86 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Flora Tallinn and FC Levadia Tallinn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.90
- Attack rating (Flora Tallinn / FC Levadia Tallinn)
- 1.12 / 1.78
- Defence rating (Flora Tallinn / FC Levadia Tallinn)
- 1.15 / 0.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Flora Tallinn goals. Columns: FC Levadia Tallinn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 10% | 9.81 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.46 | |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Flora Tallinn or draw) | 26% | 3.90 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Levadia Tallinn) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Levadia Tallinn win by 2+ | 55% | 1.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Flora Tallinn and FC Levadia Tallinn recent form
Flora Tallinn
4W 1D 1L
FC Levadia Tallinn
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Flora Tallinn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-0-6
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
FC Levadia Tallinn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-3-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 22 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Flora Tallinn at home only, FC Levadia Tallinn away only.
Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Flora Tallinn 3 · draws 1 · FC Levadia Tallinn 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 1-2 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-06-13 | Flora Tallinn | 1-3 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-19 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 4-0 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-09-24 | Flora Tallinn | 2-3 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-09-17 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 1-3 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-18 | Flora Tallinn | 1-0 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-04-12 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 0-0 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme 2026-10-13
- Laagri v Nõmme United — match page 2026-10-13
- Trans Narva vs Kuressaare — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Paide vs Tammeka 2026-10-14
Before and after this match
- Flora Tallinn, previous: Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn prediction
- FC Levadia Tallinn, previous: FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide: odds and pick