Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn: model vs market
| Source | Kuressaare | Draw | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Market | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Published | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Edge | +17% | +4% | -22% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Flora Tallinn, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.00 |
| Flora Tallinn | 1.48 | 1.45 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Kuressaare / Flora Tallinn)
- 0.78 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Kuressaare / Flora Tallinn)
- 1.07 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kuressaare goals. Columns: Flora Tallinn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kuressaare | 22% | 4.53 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Flora Tallinn | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kuressaare or draw) | 44% | 2.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Flora Tallinn) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Flora Tallinn win by 2+ | 21% | 4.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn recent form
Kuressaare
1W 2D 3L
Flora Tallinn
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kuressaare at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flora Tallinn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-4
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Kuressaare at home only, Flora Tallinn away only.
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Kuressaare 1 · draws 0 · Flora Tallinn 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Flora Tallinn | 2-3 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-07-02 | Kuressaare | 0-3 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2026-04-07 | Flora Tallinn | 2-1 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-11-01 | Flora Tallinn | 2-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-08-24 | Kuressaare | 1-2 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-05-27 | Kuressaare | 1-3 | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| 2025-03-29 | Flora Tallinn | 5-0 | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
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- FC Levadia Tallinn v Paide — match page 2026-10-11